Stock fact sheet · data as of
Northwestern Energy Group Inc (NWE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Regulated Electric · United States · Defensive
Is NWE undervalued?
At 73.85 (close of 16 Oct 2026), NWE trades 121% over the GLS average fair value of 33.37, with 0 of 6 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 6 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 3.55 while Graham Growth gives 55.54. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files NWE under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for NWE
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 54.32 | -26% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 55.54 | -25% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 16.56 | -78% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 3.55 | -95% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 39.29 | -47% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 30.96 | -58% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -82.42 | -212% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 72.33 | -2% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health NWE scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.8 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.9%, ROE 6.3%, ROA 2.1% - with debt at 1.19 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 3.62% at a payout ratio of 95%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Electricity, US Regulated 79%, Natural Gas, US Regulated 21% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.8 / 10 | ROE | 6.3% |
| Debt / equity | 1.19 | ROA | 2.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -4.2% | Payout ratio | 95% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 55: Fair
NWE scores 55 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 14/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 38% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 1,417 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 366k shares a day on a market cap of $4.5B, with a beta of 0.36 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -121% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 3.8/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 38% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 366k shares/day, $4.5B cap, beta 0.36 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Electric
The 12 companies below are the closest to Northwestern Energy Group Inc by market cap within the Regulated Electric industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAM Pampa Energía S.A. | 80.75 | 117.69 | +31% | 76Good | $4.3B |
| POR Portland General Electric Company | 44.45 | 30.12 | -48% | 51Fair | $5.2B |
| ENIC Enel Chile S.A. | 4.38 | 4.82 | +9% | 72Good | $6.1B |
| CMSC CMS Energy Corporation 5.875% J | 19.88 | 27.97 | +29% | 39No options | $6.1B |
| CMSD CMS Energy Corporation 5.875% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2079 | 19.85 | 24.04 | +17% | 39No options | $6.2B |
| UEPEM Union Electric Company | 61.05 | 52.97 | -15% | 38No options | $6.2B |
| UEPEN Union Electric Company | 61.35 | 51.92 | -18% | 36No options | $6.3B |
| TXNM TXNM Energy, Inc. | 58.57 | 24.12 | -143% | 63Fair | $6.5B |
| DTG DTE Energy Company 2021 Series | 15.28 | 32.68 | +53% | 39No options | $3.2B |
| CIG Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais | 2.29 | 10.22 | +78% | 81Prime | $6.6B |
| DTB DTE Energy Company 2020 Series | 14.79 | 32.49 | +54% | 39No options | $3.1B |
| UEPCP Union Electric Company | 66.75 | 53.60 | -25% | 34No options | $6.8B |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NWE
Is NWE undervalued right now?
No: at 73.85 the stock trades 121% above the GLS average fair value of 33.37 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of NWE and what does it mean?
NWE scores 55 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NWE?
33.37 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Northwestern Energy Group Inc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NWE have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 116 listed contracts with 1,417 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 38% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.