Stock fact sheet · data as of
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Trucking · United States · Blend
Is ODFL undervalued?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) closed at 188.88 on 16 Oct 2026, 151% above the GLS average fair value of 75.16. 9 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (5.29) and Graham Growth (177.14). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ODFL under Blend.
Nine valuation models for ODFL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 58.21 | -69% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 50.58 | -73% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 177.14 | -6% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 68.40 | -64% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 5.29 | -97% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 149.48 | -21% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 92.38 | -51% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 16.92 | -91% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 57.99 | -69% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.80 | -101% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 230.93 | +22% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability ODFL scores 7.0/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 23.0%, ROE 23.7%, ROA 18.3% - with debt at 0.03 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.8%.
The dividend yield is 0.61% with a payout ratio of 22% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from L T L Service Revenue 99%, Other Service Revenue 1% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 3/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 23.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.0 / 10 | ROE | 23.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.03 | ROA | 18.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.8% | Payout ratio | 22% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 3 / 10 |
Wheel Score 68: Good
With a Wheel Score of 68 - the Good band - Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. falls just short of the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 18/20, Moat 11/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20; Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 12,279 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.2M shares a day on a market cap of $39.3B, with a beta of 1.20 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -151% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 11 / 15 | moat 7.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 39% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.2M shares/day, $39.3B cap, beta 1.20 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Trucking
The 12 companies below are the closest to Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. by market cap within the Trucking industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | 185.10 | 77.25 | -140% | 61Fair | $21.7B |
| KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 65.28 | 27.43 | -138% | 59Fair | $10.6B |
| TFII TFI International Inc. | 112.50 | 118.44 | +5% | 79Good | $9.2B |
| SAIA Saia, Inc. | 334.69 | 197.06 | -70% | 57Fair | $8.9B |
| SNDR Schneider National, Inc. | 31.21 | 16.80 | -86% | 60Fair | $5.5B |
| RXO RXO, Inc. | 28.69 | - | - | 45Weak | $4.7B |
| ARCB ArcBest Corp | 133.07 | 43.75 | -204% | 55Fair | $3.0B |
| WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | 32.50 | 22.71 | -43% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| MRTN Marten Transport, Ltd. | 12.89 | 4.36 | -196% | 49Weak | $1.1B |
| HTLD Heartland Express, Inc. | 11.13 | 3.08 | -261% | 41Weak | $861M |
| CVLG Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 30.81 | 12.55 | -146% | 48Weak | $782M |
| ULH Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. | 16.82 | 29.48 | +43% | 39No options | $444M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ODFL
Is ODFL undervalued right now?
No: at 188.88 the stock trades 151% above the GLS average fair value of 75.16 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of ODFL and what does it mean?
ODFL scores 68 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ODFL?
75.16 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ODFL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 404 listed contracts with 12,279 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 39% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.