Stock fact sheet · data as of
XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Trucking · United States · Blend
Is XPO undervalued?
XPO closed at 185.10 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 77.25. Only 0 of the 8 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (14.93) and Graham Growth (173.99). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files XPO under Blend.
Nine valuation models for XPO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 28.14 | -85% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 36.09 | -80% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 173.99 | -6% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 74.30 | -60% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 14.93 | -92% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 150.26 | -19% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 101.90 | -45% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 38.37 | -79% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -40.16 | -122% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 227.64 | +23% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
XPO Logistics, Inc. scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.7/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.8%, ROE 17.0%, ROA 3.9% - with debt at 2.53 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.7%. Debt of 2.53 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
XPO Logistics, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Transportation 100% (fiscal year FY2023).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.7 / 10 | ROE | 17.0% |
| Debt / equity | 2.53 | ROA | 3.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
A Wheel Score of 61 puts XPO Logistics, Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 18/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20 and Stability 17/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 48% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 20,653 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.4M shares a day on a market cap of $21.7B, with a beta of 1.71 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -140% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 3.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 48% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 1.4M shares/day, $21.7B cap, beta 1.71 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
XPO Logistics, Inc. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Trucking
The 12 companies below are the closest to XPO Logistics, Inc. by market cap within the Trucking industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | 188.88 | 75.16 | -151% | 68Good | $39.3B |
| KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 65.28 | 27.43 | -138% | 59Fair | $10.6B |
| TFII TFI International Inc. | 112.50 | 118.44 | +5% | 79Good | $9.2B |
| SAIA Saia, Inc. | 334.69 | 197.06 | -70% | 57Fair | $8.9B |
| SNDR Schneider National, Inc. | 31.21 | 16.80 | -86% | 60Fair | $5.5B |
| RXO RXO, Inc. | 28.69 | - | - | 45Weak | $4.7B |
| ARCB ArcBest Corp | 133.07 | 43.75 | -204% | 55Fair | $3.0B |
| WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | 32.50 | 22.71 | -43% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| MRTN Marten Transport, Ltd. | 12.89 | 4.36 | -196% | 49Weak | $1.1B |
| HTLD Heartland Express, Inc. | 11.13 | 3.08 | -261% | 41Weak | $861M |
| CVLG Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 30.81 | 12.55 | -146% | 48Weak | $782M |
| ULH Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. | 16.82 | 29.48 | +43% | 39No options | $444M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about XPO
Is XPO undervalued right now?
No: at 185.10 the stock trades 140% above the GLS average fair value of 77.25 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of XPO and what does it mean?
XPO scores 61 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for XPO?
77.25 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does XPO Logistics, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does XPO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 720 listed contracts with 20,653 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 48% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.