Stock fact sheet · data as of
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · United States · High Yield Income
Is ORC undervalued?
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) closed at 5.18 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 14.30, which puts the price 64% below it. 6 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 8 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 3.03 while 10 Cap gives 20.55. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ORC under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for ORC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 14.02 | +171% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 19.65 | +279% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 4.87 | -6% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 3.03 | -41% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 20.55 | +297% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 19.30 | +273% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 19.42 | +275% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 13.53 | +161% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -47.58 | -1019% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 7.50 | +45% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - ORC passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.8 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.4%, ROE 11.6%, ROA 1.4% - with debt at 7.47 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 20.2%. Debt of 7.47 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 25.48% (payout ratio 97%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 6/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.8 / 10 | ROE | 11.6% |
| Debt / equity | 7.47 | ROA | 1.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 20.2% | Payout ratio | 97% |
| Institutions | 6 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 72: Good
ORC scores 72 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (6/15), the option premium on offer (16/20) and how easily the stock trades (15/20). Moat (6/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 31% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (16 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 16,492 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 7.0M shares a day on a market cap of $1.0B, with a beta of 1.60 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 64% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 3.8/10 | |
| Premium | 16 / 20 | implied volatility 31% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 7.0M shares/day, $1.0B cap, beta 1.60 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk. The shares go ex-dividend on 30 Oct 2026 (0.1000 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage
The 12 companies below are the closest to Orchid Island Capital, Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LADR Ladder Capital Corp | 8.82 | 11.73 | +25% | 76Good | $1.1B |
| SCCF Sachem Capital Corp. 7.125% Not | 24.44 | 1.77 | -1284% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| SCCD Sachem Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes Due 2026 | 24.93 | 1.77 | -1312% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| SCCG Sachem Capital Corp. 8.00% Note | 24.53 | 1.77 | -1289% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 6.41 | 16.99 | +62% | 71Good | $825M |
| PMTU PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | 25.10 | 172.24 | +85% | 39No options | $807M |
| MITN TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc 9.500% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.00 | 132.12 | +81% | 39No options | $795M |
| CIMP Chimera Investment Corporation | 24.67 | 5.80 | -325% | 11No options | $734M |
| CIMN Chimera Investment Corporation | 24.92 | 5.30 | -371% | 20No options | $732M |
| CIM Chimera Investment Corporation | 8.55 | 4.92 | -74% | 46Weak | $715M |
| ADAMG Adamas Trust, Inc. - 9.125% Senior Notes Due 2030 | 24.36 | 154.15 | +84% | 38No options | $714M |
| ADAMH Adamas Trust, Inc. | 24.86 | 156.94 | +84% | 38No options | $710M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ORC
Is ORC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 5.18 the stock is 64% below the average fair value of 14.30 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ORC and what does it mean?
ORC scores 72 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ORC?
14.30 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Orchid Island Capital, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close), 6 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ORC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 50 listed contracts with 16,492 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 31% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.