PayPay Corporation (PAYP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is PAYP undervalued?

PayPay Corporation (PAYP) closed at 14.87 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 877.42, which puts the price 98% below it. 7 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

The 8 models disagree widely: EPV gives 12.82 while 10 Cap gives 5,127.07. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files PAYP under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for PAYP

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is average - PAYP passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 7.2 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.

Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.5%, ROE 30.8%, ROA 2.3% - with debt at 1.46 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 13.1%.

PayPay Corporation pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Other Revenue 56%, Financial Services 45% (fiscal year FY2025).

Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 83: Prime

PAYP scores 83 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (11/15), the option premium on offer (17/20) and how easily the stock trades (17/20).

Implied volatility is 72% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (17 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 1,638 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.

Volume runs at 581k shares a day on a market cap of $10.1B, with a beta of 1.23 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

No upcoming earnings date is recorded for PAYP in the nightly calendar.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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