Stock fact sheet · data as of
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Technology · Software - Infrastructure · United States · High Growth
Is PGY undervalued?
PGY has a margin of safety of 72%: the stock closed at 16.81 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 61.12. 6 of the 7 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 7 models disagree widely: Graham Number gives 15.65 while Payback Time gives 119.85. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files PGY under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for PGY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 15.65 | -7% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 87.20 | +419% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 38.11 | +127% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 93.32 | +455% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 56.74 | +238% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 119.85 | +613% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 16.94 | +1% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 5.56 | -67% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 28.33 | +69% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - PGY passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.1%, ROE 17.0%, ROA 5.3% - with debt at 1.79 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 18.0%.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Financial Service 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 12 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 6.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.2 / 10 | ROE | 17.0% |
| Debt / equity | 1.79 | ROA | 5.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 18.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 70: Good
PGY scores 70 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (6/15), the option premium on offer (14/20) and how easily the stock trades (11/20). Moat (6/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 83% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (14 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 133,482 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.5M shares a day on a market cap of $1.4B, with a beta of 5.52 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 11 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 72% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.2/10 | |
| Premium | 14 / 20 | implied volatility 83% | |
| Stability | 11 / 20 | 2.5M shares/day, $1.4B cap, beta 5.52 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Software - Infrastructure
The 12 companies below are the closest to Pagaya Technologies Ltd. by market cap within the Software - Infrastructure industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NN NextNav Inc. | 10.71 | - | - | 45Weak | $1.5B |
| PRGS Progress Software Corporation | 38.61 | 79.93 | +52% | 86Prime | $1.6B |
| BAND Bandwidth Inc. | 49.60 | 8.94 | -455% | 31Weak | $1.6B |
| RDWR Radware Ltd. | 28.72 | 14.30 | -101% | 53Fair | $1.2B |
| NYAX Nayax Ltd. | 44.79 | 46.52 | +4% | 39No options | $1.7B |
| PICS PicS N.V. | 13.22 | 133.49 | +90% | 39No options | $1.7B |
| MQ Marqeta, Inc. | 18.99 | 9.00 | -111% | 55Fair | $1.8B |
| ATEN A10 Networks, Inc. | 25.39 | 11.36 | -124% | 55Fair | $1.8B |
| TUYA Tuya Inc. | 1.69 | 3.27 | +48% | 64Fair | $1.0B |
| GCT GigaCloud Technology Inc. | 59.34 | 105.83 | +44% | 83Prime | $2.1B |
| RAMP LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. | 37.61 | 76.12 | +51% | 72Good | $2.3B |
| RPD Rapid7, Inc. | 12.38 | 22.01 | +44% | 70Good | $834M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about PGY
Is PGY undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 16.81 the stock is 72% below the average fair value of 61.12 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of PGY and what does it mean?
PGY scores 70 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for PGY?
61.12 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Pagaya Technologies Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does PGY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 524 listed contracts with 133,482 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 83% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.