Stock fact sheet · data as of
TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · High Yield Income
Is TFSL undervalued?
TFSL closed at 16.18 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 7.83. Only 1 of the 8 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (1.40) and DDM (17.14). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files TFSL under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for TFSL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 7.60 | -53% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 5.79 | -64% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 1.40 | -91% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 9.02 | -44% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 8.40 | -48% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 9.23 | -43% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 17.14 | +6% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 4.07 | -75% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -53.55 | -431% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 20.00 | +24% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
TFS Financial Corporation scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 4.6/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.3%, ROE 4.8%, ROA 0.5% - with debt at 2.59 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.9%. Debt of 2.59 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 7.20% (payout ratio 59%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Banking 100% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 2/10, insider activity 7/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.6 / 10 | ROE | 4.8% |
| Debt / equity | 2.59 | ROA | 0.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.9% | Payout ratio | 59% |
| Institutions | 2 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 7 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 TFS Financial Corporation sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 9/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 13/20, Stability 17/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 28% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (13 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 1,538 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 900k shares a day on a market cap of $4.5B, with a beta of 0.73 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -107% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.6/10 | |
| Premium | 13 / 20 | implied volatility 28% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 900k shares/day, $4.5B cap, beta 0.73 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
TFS Financial Corporation reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to TFS Financial Corporation by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FFIN First Financial Bankshares, Inc. | 31.59 | 25.52 | -24% | 63Fair | $4.5B |
| FLG Flagstar Financial, Inc. | 11.25 | 4.98 | -126% | 52Fair | $4.7B |
| ASB Associated Banc-Corp | 28.84 | 42.73 | +33% | 79Good | $4.8B |
| FULTP Fulton Financial Corporation | 16.63 | 26.24 | +37% | 39No options | $4.3B |
| FULT Fulton Financial Corporation | 22.35 | 29.55 | +24% | 85Prime | $4.3B |
| EBC Eastern Bankshares, Inc. | 21.14 | 23.98 | +12% | 79Good | $4.8B |
| IBOC International Bancshares Corporation | 67.65 | 101.97 | +34% | 85Prime | $4.2B |
| OZKAP Bank OZK | 15.10 | 75.93 | +80% | 39No options | $4.9B |
| OZK Bank OZK | 44.93 | 118.53 | +62% | 86Prime | $4.9B |
| SFBS ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. | 38.07 | 51.20 | +26% | 87Prime | $4.2B |
| BMA Banco Macro S.A. | 65.03 | 93,106.43 | +100% | 76Good | $4.2B |
| FBP First BanCorp. | 27.19 | 38.50 | +29% | 91Prime | $4.2B |
⚖ Compare TFSL with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TFSL
Is TFSL undervalued right now?
No: at 16.18 the stock trades 107% above the GLS average fair value of 7.83 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of TFSL and what does it mean?
TFSL scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TFSL?
7.83 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does TFS Financial Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TFSL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 116 listed contracts with 1,538 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 28% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.