Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail · United States · Blend
Is ULTA undervalued?
At 592.42 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ULTA trades 24% over the GLS average fair value of 476.96. 3 of the 8 models land above the price and 5 below. A negative margin of safety costs Value points in the Wheel Score (2 of 25 here) - the models see no discount, which does not make the business a poor one, only the price a full one.
The 8 models disagree widely: Graham Number gives 195.63 while Graham Growth gives 844.69. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ULTA under Blend.
Nine valuation models for ULTA
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 471.58 | -20% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 195.63 | -67% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 844.69 | +43% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 313.36 | -47% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 331.70 | -44% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 740.59 | +25% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 608.11 | +3% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 310.02 | -48% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -24.46 | -104% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 624.93 | +5% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - ULTA passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 8.0 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 23.1%, ROE 41.1%, ROA 16.5% - with debt at 0.78 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.2%.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Gift card breakage 100% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 23.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.0 / 10 | ROE | 41.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.78 | ROA | 16.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
ULTA scores 61 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 2/25, Health 11/20, Moat 12/15, Premium 18/20, Stability 17/20. Value (2/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 33% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (18 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 13,385 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 604k shares a day on a market cap of $25.5B, with a beta of 0.84; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 2 / 25 | -24% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 12 / 15 | moat 8.0/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 33% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 604k shares/day, $25.5B cap, beta 0.84 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Dec 2026, 48 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Specialty Retail
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ulta Beauty, Inc. by market cap within the Specialty Retail industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 673.63 | 330.95 | -104% | 64Fair | $24.9B |
| CPNG Coupang, Inc. | 14.79 | 9.90 | -49% | 45Weak | $26.6B |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | 242.48 | 148.10 | -64% | 63Fair | $28.6B |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | 94.17 | 93.88 | -0% | 78Good | $19.8B |
| JD JD.com, Inc. | 27.39 | 114.53 | +76% | 88Prime | $37.0B |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | 32.74 | 21.97 | -49% | 67Good | $17.1B |
| W Wayfair Inc. | 104.78 | 83.75 | -25% | 44Weak | $14.4B |
| GME GameStop Corp. | 28.02 | 38.65 | +28% | 72Good | $14.1B |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | 3,059.62 | 2,988.47 | -2% | 67Good | $49.9B |
| DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 140.84 | 163.52 | +14% | 76Good | $12.5B |
| FIVE Five Below, Inc. | 223.23 | 225.38 | +1% | 79Good | $12.3B |
| EBAY eBay Inc. | 122.91 | 108.54 | -13% | 71Good | $54.7B |
⚖ Compare ULTA with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ULTA
Is ULTA undervalued right now?
No: at 592.42 the stock trades 24% above the GLS average fair value of 476.96 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of ULTA and what does it mean?
ULTA scores 61 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ULTA?
476.96 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ulta Beauty, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Dec 2026 (after the close), 48 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ULTA have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 13,385 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 33% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.