Stock fact sheet · data as of
JD.com, Inc. (JD): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail · China · ADR · Defensive
Is JD undervalued?
JD.com, Inc. (JD) closed at 27.39 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 114.53, which puts the price 76% below it. 6 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 10.60 while 10 Cap gives 563.27. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files JD under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for JD
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 62.01 | +126% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 100.30 | +266% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 62.53 | +128% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 24.89 | -9% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 10.60 | -61% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 563.27 | +1956% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 90.37 | +230% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 98.29 | +259% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 18.53 | -32% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -20.00 | -173% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 35.38 | +29% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health JD scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.4 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.9%, ROE 8.7%, ROA 2.8% - with debt at 0.48 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 14.6%.
The dividend yield is 3.70% at a payout ratio of 70%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Electronics And Home Appliance Products 46%, General Merchandise Products 32%, Logistics And Other Services 14% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 2/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 5.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | 8.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.48 | ROA | 2.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.6% | Payout ratio | 70% |
| Institutions | 2 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 88: Prime
JD scores 88 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (5/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20).
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 893,630 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 9.3M shares a day on a market cap of $37.0B, with a beta of 0.32 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 76% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 9.3M shares/day, $37.0B cap, beta 0.32 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026 (before the open), 27 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Specialty Retail
The 12 companies below are the closest to JD.com, Inc. by market cap within the Specialty Retail industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | 242.48 | 148.10 | -64% | 63Fair | $28.6B |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | 3,059.62 | 2,988.47 | -2% | 67Good | $49.9B |
| CPNG Coupang, Inc. | 14.79 | 9.90 | -49% | 45Weak | $26.6B |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | 592.42 | 476.96 | -24% | 61Fair | $25.5B |
| EBAY eBay Inc. | 122.91 | 108.54 | -13% | 71Good | $54.7B |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 673.63 | 330.95 | -104% | 64Fair | $24.9B |
| SE Sea Limited | 95.31 | 113.41 | +16% | 77Good | $58.3B |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | 94.17 | 93.88 | -0% | 78Good | $19.8B |
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | 88.50 | 54.54 | -62% | 62Fair | $71.6B |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | 32.74 | 21.97 | -49% | 67Good | $17.1B |
| MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | 1,856.98 | 1,877.00 | +1% | 72Good | $94.1B |
| W Wayfair Inc. | 104.78 | 83.75 | -25% | 44Weak | $14.4B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about JD
Is JD undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 27.39 the stock is 76% below the average fair value of 114.53 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of JD and what does it mean?
JD scores 88 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for JD?
114.53 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does JD.com, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026 (before the open), 27 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does JD have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 742 listed contracts with 893,630 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.