Stock fact sheet · data as of
Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail · United States · Quality / Blue-Chip
Is CASY undervalued?
Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) closed at 673.63 on 16 Oct 2026, 104% above the GLS average fair value of 330.95. 9 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 34.73 while 10 Cap gives 597.21. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CASY under Quality / Blue-Chip: a high moat score and a high health score together.
Nine valuation models for CASY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 256.72 | -62% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 228.25 | -66% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 535.00 | -21% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 184.73 | -73% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 415.95 | -38% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 597.21 | -11% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 493.64 | -27% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 34.73 | -95% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 232.30 | -66% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -97.95 | -115% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 817.50 | +21% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health CASY scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 8.8 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 10.4%, ROE 18.1%, ROA 8.0% - with debt at 0.74 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.6%.
The dividend yield is 0.35% with a payout ratio of 11% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Reportable 100% (quarter Q1 FY2027).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 4 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 10.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.8 / 10 | ROE | 18.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.74 | ROA | 8.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.6% | Payout ratio | 11% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 64: Fair
CASY scores 64 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 13/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 16/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 34% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (19 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 14,390 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 484k shares a day on a market cap of $24.9B, with a beta of 0.58 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -104% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 13 / 15 | moat 8.8/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 34% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 484k shares/day, $24.9B cap, beta 0.58 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 8 Dec 2026, 53 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today. The shares go ex-dividend on 30 Oct 2026 (0.6500 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Specialty Retail
The 12 companies below are the closest to Casey's General Stores, Inc. by market cap within the Specialty Retail industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | 592.42 | 476.96 | -24% | 61Fair | $25.5B |
| CPNG Coupang, Inc. | 14.79 | 9.90 | -49% | 45Weak | $26.6B |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | 242.48 | 148.10 | -64% | 63Fair | $28.6B |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | 94.17 | 93.88 | -0% | 78Good | $19.8B |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | 32.74 | 21.97 | -49% | 67Good | $17.1B |
| JD JD.com, Inc. | 27.39 | 114.53 | +76% | 88Prime | $37.0B |
| W Wayfair Inc. | 104.78 | 83.75 | -25% | 44Weak | $14.4B |
| GME GameStop Corp. | 28.02 | 38.65 | +28% | 72Good | $14.1B |
| DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 140.84 | 163.52 | +14% | 76Good | $12.5B |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | 3,059.62 | 2,988.47 | -2% | 67Good | $49.9B |
| FIVE Five Below, Inc. | 223.23 | 225.38 | +1% | 79Good | $12.3B |
| EBAY eBay Inc. | 122.91 | 108.54 | -13% | 71Good | $54.7B |
⚖ Compare CASY with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CASY
Is CASY undervalued right now?
No: at 673.63 the stock trades 104% above the GLS average fair value of 330.95 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CASY and what does it mean?
CASY scores 64 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CASY?
330.95 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Casey's General Stores, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 8 Dec 2026 (after the close), 53 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CASY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 614 listed contracts with 14,390 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 34% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.