Stock fact sheet · data as of
XPEL, Inc. (XPEL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Parts · United States · High Growth
Is XPEL undervalued?
XPEL, Inc. (XPEL) closed at 44.01 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 7 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 54.80, so the price sits 20% below it. 3 of the 7 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
There is a wide gap between EPV (22.07) and GLS Growth (121.57). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files XPEL under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for XPEL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 30.28 | -31% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 22.28 | -49% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 113.59 | +158% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 49.65 | +13% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 121.57 | +176% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 24.15 | -45% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 22.07 | -50% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 4.52 | -90% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 65.00 | +48% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
XPEL, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 8.4/10 puts XPEL among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 16.9%, ROE 18.3%, ROA 13.1% - with debt at 0.08 times equity and negative free cash flow.
XPEL, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product 39%, Product Revenue, Paint Protection Film 26%, Product Revenue, Window Film 11% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 16.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.4 / 10 | ROE | 18.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.08 | ROA | 13.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -0.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 75: Good
With a Wheel Score of 75 - the Good band - XPEL, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 21/25, Health 13/20, Moat 13/15, Premium 18/20, Stability 10/20; Stability (10/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 70% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (18 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 9,663 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 214k shares a day on a market cap of $1.2B, with a beta of 1.18; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 21 / 25 | 20% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 13 / 15 | moat 8.4/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 70% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 214k shares/day, $1.2B cap, beta 1.18 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Auto - Parts
The 12 companies below are the closest to XPEL, Inc. by market cap within the Auto - Parts industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCH Dauch Corp. | 5.10 | 45.56 | +89% | 45Weak | $1.2B |
| GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | 4.42 | 85.20 | +95% | 45Weak | $1.3B |
| ADNT Adient plc | 18.18 | 43.42 | +58% | 77Good | $1.4B |
| CYD China Yuchai International Limited | 26.35 | 253.26 | +90% | 78Good | $989M |
| THRM Gentherm Incorporated | 30.61 | 34.55 | +11% | 71Good | $940M |
| HSAI Hesai Group | 13.36 | 27.57 | +52% | 77Good | $1.7B |
| SMP Standard Motor Products, Inc. | 36.25 | 50.38 | +28% | 72Good | $810M |
| FOXF Fox Factory Holding Corp. | 18.50 | 23.21 | +20% | 45Weak | $776M |
| PHIN PHINIA Inc. | 55.84 | 77.57 | +28% | 83Prime | $2.0B |
| VC Visteon Corporation | 86.61 | 175.91 | +51% | 76Good | $2.3B |
| QS QuantumScape Corporation | 3.93 | 0.2596 | -1414% | 34Weak | $2.4B |
| HYLN Hyliion Holdings Corp. | 3.28 | - | - | 38Weak | $586M |
⚖ Compare XPEL with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about XPEL
Is XPEL undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 44.01 the stock trades 20% below the average fair value of 54.80 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of XPEL and what does it mean?
XPEL scores 75 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for XPEL?
54.80 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does XPEL, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does XPEL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 168 listed contracts with 9,663 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 70% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.