Stock fact sheet · data as of
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified · Bermuda · High Growth
Is ACGL undervalued?
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) closed at 99.31 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 356.81, which puts the price 72% below it. 7 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (50.47) and GLS Growth (836.96). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ACGL under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for ACGL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 363.77 | +266% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 146.76 | +48% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 212.31 | +114% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 50.47 | -49% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 836.96 | +743% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 393.68 | +296% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 698.62 | +603% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 151.90 | +53% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -99.15 | -200% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 111.83 | +13% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Arch Capital Group Ltd. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 7.9/10 puts ACGL among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 16.3%, ROE 18.2%, ROA 6.6% - with debt at 0.11 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 17.9%.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Reinsurance 48%, Insurance 46%, Mortgage 7% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 2/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 16.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.9 / 10 | ROE | 18.2% |
| Debt / equity | 0.11 | ROA | 6.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 17.9% | Payout ratio | 1% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 2 / 10 |
Wheel Score 84: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 84, Arch Capital Group Ltd. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 16/20, Moat 12/15, Premium 12/20, Stability 20/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 27% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (12 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 10,080 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.2M shares a day on a market cap of $33.9B, with a beta of 0.26 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 72% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 12 / 15 | moat 7.9/10 | |
| Premium | 12 / 20 | implied volatility 27% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.2M shares/day, $33.9B cap, beta 0.26 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Arch Capital Group Ltd. reports earnings on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Diversified
The 12 companies below are the closest to Arch Capital Group Ltd. by market cap within the Insurance - Diversified industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACGLN Arch Capital Group Ltd. | 15.30 | 158.96 | +90% | 39No options | $34.7B |
| ACGLO Arch Capital Group Ltd. | 18.48 | 169.55 | +89% | 39No options | $34.9B |
| HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | 132.81 | 354.02 | +62% | 84Prime | $36.0B |
| PFH Prudential Financial, Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 | 14.72 | 154.47 | +90% | 39No options | $39.4B |
| AIG American International Group, Inc. | 79.12 | 110.31 | +28% | 81Prime | $41.9B |
| SLF Sun Life Financial Inc. | 78.04 | 182.53 | +57% | 84Prime | $43.4B |
| AEFC Aegon Funding Company LLC | 17.47 | 20.05 | +13% | 35No options | $13.6B |
| AEG Aegon Ltd. | 8.27 | 9.88 | +16% | 57Fair | $12.6B |
| BNT Brookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd. | 36.78 | 54.97 | +33% | 72Good | $12.2B |
| AXS AXIS Capital Holdings Limited | 97.93 | 459.20 | +79% | 84Prime | $7.1B |
| WTM White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. | 2,098.01 | 8,914.92 | +76% | 39No options | $5.0B |
| GNW Genworth Financial, Inc. | 8.94 | 16.69 | +46% | 83Prime | $3.4B |
⚖ Compare ACGL with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ACGL
Is ACGL undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 99.31 the stock is 72% below the average fair value of 356.81 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ACGL and what does it mean?
ACGL scores 84 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ACGL?
356.81 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Arch Capital Group Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close), 10 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ACGL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 192 listed contracts with 10,080 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 27% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.