Stock fact sheet · data as of
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGLN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified · Bermuda · High Growth
Is ACGLN undervalued?
At 15.30 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ACGLN trades 90% below the GLS average fair value of 158.96. That average comes from 8 models run on the latest filings, and 7 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Arch Capital Group Ltd. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (7.77) and DCF (363.77). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ACGLN under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for ACGLN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 363.77 | +2278% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 146.76 | +859% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 32.71 | +114% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 7.77 | -49% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 128.94 | +743% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 359.81 | +2252% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 208.51 | +1263% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 23.40 | +53% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -14.94 | -198% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Arch Capital Group Ltd. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 7.9/10 puts ACGLN among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 16.3%, ROE 18.2%, ROA 6.6% - with debt at 0.11 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 17.9%.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Reinsurance 48%, Insurance 46%, Mortgage 7% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 16.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.9 / 10 | ROE | 18.2% |
| Debt / equity | 0.11 | ROA | 6.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 17.9% | Payout ratio | 1% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 39: No options
No options are listed on Arch Capital Group Ltd. in our nightly snapshot. The Wheel Score is therefore capped at 39 (it reads 39) and the stock is left out of every options screen; the fair value and health figures above are still useful for a plain stock position.
Volume runs at 57k shares a day on a market cap of $34.7B, with a beta of 0.29 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 90% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 12 / 15 | moat 7.9/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 12 / 20 | 57k shares/day, $34.7B cap, beta 0.29 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Arch Capital Group Ltd. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Diversified
The 12 companies below are the closest to Arch Capital Group Ltd. by market cap within the Insurance - Diversified industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACGLO Arch Capital Group Ltd. | 18.48 | 169.55 | +89% | 39No options | $34.9B |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. | 99.31 | 356.81 | +72% | 84Prime | $33.9B |
| HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | 132.81 | 354.02 | +62% | 84Prime | $36.0B |
| PFH Prudential Financial, Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 | 14.72 | 154.47 | +90% | 39No options | $39.4B |
| AIG American International Group, Inc. | 79.12 | 110.31 | +28% | 81Prime | $41.9B |
| SLF Sun Life Financial Inc. | 78.04 | 182.53 | +57% | 84Prime | $43.4B |
| AEFC Aegon Funding Company LLC | 17.47 | 20.05 | +13% | 35No options | $13.6B |
| AEG Aegon Ltd. | 8.27 | 9.88 | +16% | 57Fair | $12.6B |
| BNT Brookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd. | 36.78 | 54.97 | +33% | 72Good | $12.2B |
| AXS AXIS Capital Holdings Limited | 97.93 | 459.20 | +79% | 84Prime | $7.1B |
| WTM White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. | 2,098.01 | 8,914.92 | +76% | 39No options | $5.0B |
| GNW Genworth Financial, Inc. | 8.94 | 16.69 | +46% | 83Prime | $3.4B |
⚖ Compare ACGLN with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ACGLN
Is ACGLN undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 15.30 the stock is 90% below the average fair value of 158.96 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ACGLN and what does it mean?
ACGLN has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; its Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for ACGLN?
158.96 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Arch Capital Group Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close), 11 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ACGLN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on ACGLN, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score is capped at 39.