Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified · United States · Quality / Blue-Chip
Is HIG undervalued?
HIG has a margin of safety of 62%: the stock closed at 132.81 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 354.02. 7 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 35.31 while GLS Growth gives 821.53. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files HIG under Quality / Blue-Chip: a high moat score and a high health score together.
Nine valuation models for HIG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 224.19 | +69% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 157.78 | +19% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 363.29 | +174% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 119.11 | -10% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 821.53 | +519% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 497.55 | +275% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 793.16 | +497% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 35.31 | -73% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 174.27 | +31% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -207.54 | -256% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 147.75 | +11% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health HIG scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 7.6 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 16.4%, ROE 20.2%, ROA 4.5% - with debt at 0.23 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 16.3%.
The dividend yield is 1.81% at a payout ratio of 15%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Property, Liability and Casualty Insura… 100% (quarter Q4 FY2022).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 16.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.6 / 10 | ROE | 20.2% |
| Debt / equity | 0.23 | ROA | 4.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 16.3% | Payout ratio | 15% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 84: Prime
HIG scores 84 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (11/15), the option premium on offer (12/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20).
Implied volatility is 27% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (12 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 15,987 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.8M shares a day on a market cap of $36.0B, with a beta of 0.49 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 62% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 11 / 15 | moat 7.6/10 | |
| Premium | 12 / 20 | implied volatility 27% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 1.8M shares/day, $36.0B cap, beta 0.49 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. reports earnings on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Diversified
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Diversified industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACGLO Arch Capital Group Ltd. | 18.48 | 169.55 | +89% | 39No options | $34.9B |
| ACGLN Arch Capital Group Ltd. | 15.30 | 158.96 | +90% | 39No options | $34.7B |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. | 99.31 | 356.81 | +72% | 84Prime | $33.9B |
| PFH Prudential Financial, Inc. 4.125% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 | 14.72 | 154.47 | +90% | 39No options | $39.4B |
| AIG American International Group, Inc. | 79.12 | 110.31 | +28% | 81Prime | $41.9B |
| SLF Sun Life Financial Inc. | 78.04 | 182.53 | +57% | 84Prime | $43.4B |
| AEFC Aegon Funding Company LLC | 17.47 | 20.05 | +13% | 35No options | $13.6B |
| AEG Aegon Ltd. | 8.27 | 9.88 | +16% | 57Fair | $12.6B |
| BNT Brookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd. | 36.78 | 54.97 | +33% | 72Good | $12.2B |
| AXS AXIS Capital Holdings Limited | 97.93 | 459.20 | +79% | 84Prime | $7.1B |
| WTM White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. | 2,098.01 | 8,914.92 | +76% | 39No options | $5.0B |
| GNW Genworth Financial, Inc. | 8.94 | 16.69 | +46% | 83Prime | $3.4B |
⚖ Compare HIG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HIG
Is HIG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 132.81 the stock is 62% below the average fair value of 354.02 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of HIG and what does it mean?
HIG scores 84 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HIG?
354.02 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close), 10 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HIG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 230 listed contracts with 15,987 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 27% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.