Stock fact sheet · data as of
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · United States · High Yield Income
Is AGNC undervalued?
AGNC has a margin of safety of 49%: the stock closed at 8.82 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 17.30. 6 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (5.62) and Graham Growth (30.97). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files AGNC under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for AGNC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 21.63 | +145% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 30.97 | +251% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 7.68 | -13% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 5.62 | -36% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 15.31 | +74% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 14.67 | +66% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 21.19 | +140% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 21.33 | +142% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -85.15 | -1065% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 11.00 | +25% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
AGNC Investment Corp. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 3.4/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.5%, ROE 13.5%, ROA 1.5% - with debt at 8.21 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 8.5%. Debt of 8.21 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 16.33% (payout ratio 79%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | 13.5% |
| Debt / equity | 8.21 | ROA | 1.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.5% | Payout ratio | 79% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 81: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 81, AGNC Investment Corp. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 13/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 18/20, Stability 20/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 33% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (18 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 810,920 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 31.3M shares a day on a market cap of $10.5B, with a beta of 1.34 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 49% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 33% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 31.3M shares/day, $10.5B cap, beta 1.34 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
AGNC Investment Corp. reports earnings on 19 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk. The shares go ex-dividend on 30 Oct 2026 (0.1200 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage
The 12 companies below are the closest to AGNC Investment Corp. by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNCO AGNC Investment Corp. | 25.14 | 32.47 | +23% | 39No options | $10.5B |
| AGNCL AGNC Investment Corp. | 25.01 | 32.34 | +23% | 39No options | $10.4B |
| AGNCP AGNC Investment Corp. | 24.79 | 32.14 | +23% | 39No options | $10.6B |
| AGNCZ AGNC Investment Corp. 8.75% Series H Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | 23.94 | 31.35 | +24% | 39No options | $10.1B |
| AGNCM AGNC Investment Corp. | 24.72 | 32.07 | +23% | 39No options | $8.8B |
| AGNCN AGNC Investment Corp. | 25.49 | 32.80 | +22% | 39No options | $8.8B |
| NLY Annaly Capital Management, Inc. | 18.43 | 94.38 | +80% | 78Good | $13.9B |
| STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | 12.38 | 22.66 | +45% | 84Prime | $4.6B |
| RWTN Redwood Trust, Inc. 9.125% Seni | 22.50 | 7.87 | -186% | 25No options | $2.8B |
| DX Dynex Capital, Inc. | 11.12 | 39.34 | +72% | 79Good | $2.8B |
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | 13.66 | 37.56 | +64% | 72Good | $1.9B |
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | 10.78 | 34.88 | +69% | 81Prime | $1.8B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AGNC
Is AGNC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 8.82 the stock is 49% below the average fair value of 17.30 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of AGNC and what does it mean?
AGNC scores 81 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AGNC?
17.30 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does AGNC Investment Corp. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 19 Oct 2026 (after the close), 3 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AGNC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 486 listed contracts with 810,920 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 33% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.