AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNCM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is AGNCM undervalued?

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNCM) closed at 24.72 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 32.07, so the price sits 23% below it. 2 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.

The 8 models disagree widely: Payback Time gives 14.67 while Graham Growth gives 86.78. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files AGNCM under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.

Nine valuation models for AGNCM

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is average - AGNCM passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.4 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.5%, ROE 13.5%, ROA 1.5% - with debt at 8.21 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 8.5%. Debt of 8.21 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

The dividend yield is high at 16.33% (payout ratio 79%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.

Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 39: No options

AGNCM has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business; the Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options" (39 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.

Volume runs at 34k shares a day on a market cap of $8.8B, with a beta of 1.30 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 11 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

AGNC Investment Corp. reports earnings on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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