Stock fact sheet · data as of
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNCO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · United States · High Yield Income
Is AGNCO undervalued?
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNCO) closed at 25.14 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 32.47, so the price sits 23% below it. 2 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
The 8 models disagree widely: Payback Time gives 14.67 while Graham Growth gives 88.27. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files AGNCO under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for AGNCO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 21.63 | -14% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 88.27 | +251% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 21.88 | -13% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 16.02 | -36% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 15.31 | -39% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 14.67 | -42% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 21.19 | -16% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 60.79 | +142% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -241.23 | -1060% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - AGNCO passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.4 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.5%, ROE 13.5%, ROA 1.5% - with debt at 8.21 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 8.5%. Debt of 8.21 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 16.33% (payout ratio 79%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | 13.5% |
| Debt / equity | 8.21 | ROA | 1.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.5% | Payout ratio | 79% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 39: No options
AGNCO has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business; the Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options" (39 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.
Volume runs at 49k shares a day on a market cap of $10.5B, with a beta of 1.30 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 22 / 25 | 23% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 12 / 20 | 49k shares/day, $10.5B cap, beta 1.30 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
AGNC Investment Corp. reports earnings on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage
The 12 companies below are the closest to AGNC Investment Corp. by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. | 8.82 | 17.30 | +49% | 81Prime | $10.5B |
| AGNCP AGNC Investment Corp. | 24.79 | 32.14 | +23% | 39No options | $10.6B |
| AGNCL AGNC Investment Corp. | 25.01 | 32.34 | +23% | 39No options | $10.4B |
| AGNCZ AGNC Investment Corp. 8.75% Series H Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | 23.94 | 31.35 | +24% | 39No options | $10.1B |
| AGNCM AGNC Investment Corp. | 24.72 | 32.07 | +23% | 39No options | $8.8B |
| AGNCN AGNC Investment Corp. | 25.49 | 32.80 | +22% | 39No options | $8.8B |
| NLY Annaly Capital Management, Inc. | 18.43 | 94.38 | +80% | 78Good | $13.9B |
| STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | 12.38 | 22.66 | +45% | 84Prime | $4.6B |
| RWTN Redwood Trust, Inc. 9.125% Seni | 22.50 | 7.87 | -186% | 25No options | $2.8B |
| DX Dynex Capital, Inc. | 11.12 | 39.34 | +72% | 79Good | $2.8B |
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | 13.66 | 37.56 | +64% | 72Good | $1.9B |
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | 10.78 | 34.88 | +69% | 81Prime | $1.8B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AGNCO
Is AGNCO undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 25.14 the stock trades 23% below the average fair value of 32.47 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of AGNCO and what does it mean?
AGNCO has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; its Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for AGNCO?
32.47 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does AGNC Investment Corp. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close), 10 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AGNCO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on AGNCO, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score is capped at 39.