Stock fact sheet · data as of
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · United States · High Yield Income
Is BXMT undervalued?
BXMT has a margin of safety of 69%: the stock closed at 10.78 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 34.88. 3 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (0.0632) and DCF (252.92). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files BXMT under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for BXMT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 252.92 | +2246% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 6.28 | -42% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 5.20 | -52% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 2.27 | -79% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.0632 | -99% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 14.65 | +36% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 3.84 | -64% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 27.66 | +157% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 1.01 | -91% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -94.41 | -976% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 19.50 | +81% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 2.4/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.6%, ROE 3.1%, ROA 0.5% - with debt at 4.62 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.5%. Debt of 4.62 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 17.44% (payout ratio 2080%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 4/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 0.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.4 / 10 | ROE | 3.1% |
| Debt / equity | 4.62 | ROA | 0.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.5% | Payout ratio | 2080% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 4 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 81: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 81, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 16/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 17/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 45% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 61,571 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 4.0M shares a day on a market cap of $1.8B, with a beta of 0.96; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 69% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 45% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 4.0M shares/day, $1.8B cap, beta 0.96 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage
The 12 companies below are the closest to Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | 13.66 | 37.56 | +64% | 72Good | $1.9B |
| EFC Ellington Financial Inc. | 11.90 | 35.23 | +66% | 45Weak | $1.5B |
| DX Dynex Capital, Inc. | 11.12 | 39.34 | +72% | 79Good | $2.8B |
| SCCG Sachem Capital Corp. 8.00% Note | 24.53 | 1.77 | -1289% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| SCCD Sachem Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes Due 2026 | 24.93 | 1.77 | -1312% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| RWTN Redwood Trust, Inc. 9.125% Seni | 22.50 | 7.87 | -186% | 25No options | $2.8B |
| SCCF Sachem Capital Corp. 7.125% Not | 24.44 | 1.77 | -1284% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| LADR Ladder Capital Corp | 8.82 | 11.73 | +25% | 76Good | $1.1B |
| ORC Orchid Island Capital, Inc. | 5.18 | 14.30 | +64% | 72Good | $1.0B |
| ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 6.41 | 16.99 | +62% | 71Good | $825M |
| PMTU PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | 25.10 | 172.24 | +85% | 39No options | $807M |
| MITN TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc 9.500% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.00 | 132.12 | +81% | 39No options | $795M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BXMT
Is BXMT undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 10.78 the stock is 69% below the average fair value of 34.88 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of BXMT and what does it mean?
BXMT scores 81 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for BXMT?
34.88 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does BXMT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 204 listed contracts with 61,571 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 45% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.