Stock fact sheet · data as of
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · United States · High Yield Income
Is NLY undervalued?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) closed at 18.43 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 94.38, which puts the price 80% below it. 5 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between 10 Cap (1.07) and DCF (527.41). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NLY under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for NLY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 527.41 | +2762% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 45.87 | +149% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 65.15 | +254% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 16.15 | -12% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 11.82 | -36% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 1.07 | -94% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 42.67 | +132% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 44.87 | +143% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -154.55 | -939% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 22.00 | +19% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 2.7/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.6%, ROE 12.6%, ROA 1.5% - with debt at 6.95 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 6.95 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 15.73% (payout ratio 71%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Bank Servicing 90%, Interests In Mortgage Servicing Rights 10% (quarter Q4 FY2021).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.7 / 10 | ROE | 12.6% |
| Debt / equity | 6.95 | ROA | 1.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -2.3% | Payout ratio | 71% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 78: Good
With a Wheel Score of 78 - the Good band - Annaly Capital Management, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 11/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 18/20, Stability 20/20; Moat (4/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 33% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (18 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 235,231 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 10.4M shares a day on a market cap of $13.9B, with a beta of 1.28 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 80% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.7/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 33% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 10.4M shares/day, $13.9B cap, beta 1.28 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. reports earnings on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage
The 12 companies below are the closest to Annaly Capital Management, Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNCP AGNC Investment Corp. | 24.79 | 32.14 | +23% | 39No options | $10.6B |
| AGNCO AGNC Investment Corp. | 25.14 | 32.47 | +23% | 39No options | $10.5B |
| AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. | 8.82 | 17.30 | +49% | 81Prime | $10.5B |
| AGNCL AGNC Investment Corp. | 25.01 | 32.34 | +23% | 39No options | $10.4B |
| AGNCZ AGNC Investment Corp. 8.75% Series H Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | 23.94 | 31.35 | +24% | 39No options | $10.1B |
| AGNCM AGNC Investment Corp. | 24.72 | 32.07 | +23% | 39No options | $8.8B |
| AGNCN AGNC Investment Corp. | 25.49 | 32.80 | +22% | 39No options | $8.8B |
| STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | 12.38 | 22.66 | +45% | 84Prime | $4.6B |
| RWTN Redwood Trust, Inc. 9.125% Seni | 22.50 | 7.87 | -186% | 25No options | $2.8B |
| DX Dynex Capital, Inc. | 11.12 | 39.34 | +72% | 79Good | $2.8B |
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | 13.66 | 37.56 | +64% | 72Good | $1.9B |
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | 10.78 | 34.88 | +69% | 81Prime | $1.8B |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NLY
Is NLY undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 18.43 the stock is 80% below the average fair value of 94.38 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of NLY and what does it mean?
NLY scores 78 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NLY?
94.38 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Annaly Capital Management, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close), 4 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NLY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 624 listed contracts with 235,231 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 33% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.