Stock fact sheet · data as of
Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · United States · High Growth
Is SHAK undervalued?
At 68.77 (close of 16 Oct 2026), SHAK trades 147% over the GLS average fair value of 27.84, with 0 of 8 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
There is a wide gap between Payback Time (9.64) and GLS Growth (60.26). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files SHAK under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for SHAK
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 12.42 | -82% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 17.28 | -75% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 47.23 | -31% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 19.97 | -71% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 60.26 | -12% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 44.98 | -35% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 9.64 | -86% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 10.94 | -84% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -22.60 | -133% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 81.53 | +19% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Shake Shack Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.9/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.2%, ROE 8.7%, ROA 2.4% - with debt at 1.72 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.4%.
Shake Shack Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Shack Sales 97%, Franchise 3% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 11 Aug 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 3.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.9 / 10 | ROE | 8.7% |
| Debt / equity | 1.72 | ROA | 2.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.4% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 54: Fair
A Wheel Score of 54 puts Shake Shack Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 18/20 and Stability 15/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 67% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (18 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 62,965 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 1.4M shares a day on a market cap of $2.8B, with a beta of 1.68 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -147% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.9/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 67% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 1.4M shares/day, $2.8B cap, beta 1.68 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Shake Shack Inc. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Restaurants
The 12 companies below are the closest to Shake Shack Inc. by market cap within the Restaurants industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares | 12.44 | 63.22 | +80% | 39No options | $2.4B |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | 122.90 | 137.21 | +10% | 69Good | $3.3B |
| ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 8.06 | 20.68 | +61% | 81Prime | $1.7B |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | 67.41 | 29.15 | -131% | 50Fair | $1.5B |
| BH Biglari Holdings Inc. | 425.17 | 215.68 | -97% | 21No options | $1.4B |
| CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 116.59 | 93.42 | -25% | 57Fair | $5.8B |
| BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 60.22 | 56.95 | -6% | 69Good | $1.3B |
| WEN The Wendy's Company | 6.44 | 23.87 | +73% | 83Prime | $1.2B |
| SG Sweetgreen, Inc. | 10.14 | 1.92 | -427% | 31Weak | $1.2B |
| CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. | 55.40 | 13.31 | -316% | 56Fair | $6.5B |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | 41.10 | 24.65 | -67% | 54Fair | $7.7B |
| EAT Brinker International, Inc. | 204.91 | 291.64 | +30% | 90Prime | $8.6B |
⚖ Compare SHAK with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about SHAK
Is SHAK undervalued right now?
No: at 68.77 the stock trades 147% above the GLS average fair value of 27.84 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of SHAK and what does it mean?
SHAK scores 54 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for SHAK?
27.84 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Shake Shack Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does SHAK have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 852 listed contracts with 62,965 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 67% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.