Stock fact sheet · data as of
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · United States · High Yield Income
Is ARR undervalued?
At 13.66 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ARR trades 64% below the GLS average fair value of 37.56. That average comes from 8 models run on the latest filings, and 7 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (13.35) and Graham Growth (53.84). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ARR under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for ARR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 38.73 | +184% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 53.84 | +294% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 13.35 | -2% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 15.10 | +11% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 49.49 | +262% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 50.54 | +270% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 42.38 | +210% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 37.08 | +171% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -131.36 | -1062% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 15.00 | +10% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 3.0/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.6%, ROE 14.3%, ROA 1.5% - with debt at 7.94 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 16.5%. Debt of 7.94 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 21.08% (payout ratio 76%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 29 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.0 / 10 | ROE | 14.3% |
| Debt / equity | 7.94 | ROA | 1.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 16.5% | Payout ratio | 76% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 72: Good
With a Wheel Score of 72 - the Good band - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 9/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 16/20; Moat (5/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 32% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (17 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 32,203 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 5.7M shares a day on a market cap of $1.9B, with a beta of 1.40 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 64% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.0/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 32% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 5.7M shares/day, $1.9B cap, beta 1.40 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage
The 12 companies below are the closest to ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | 10.78 | 34.88 | +69% | 81Prime | $1.8B |
| EFC Ellington Financial Inc. | 11.90 | 35.23 | +66% | 45Weak | $1.5B |
| DX Dynex Capital, Inc. | 11.12 | 39.34 | +72% | 79Good | $2.8B |
| RWTN Redwood Trust, Inc. 9.125% Seni | 22.50 | 7.87 | -186% | 25No options | $2.8B |
| SCCG Sachem Capital Corp. 8.00% Note | 24.53 | 1.77 | -1289% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| SCCD Sachem Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes Due 2026 | 24.93 | 1.77 | -1312% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| SCCF Sachem Capital Corp. 7.125% Not | 24.44 | 1.77 | -1284% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| LADR Ladder Capital Corp | 8.82 | 11.73 | +25% | 76Good | $1.1B |
| ORC Orchid Island Capital, Inc. | 5.18 | 14.30 | +64% | 72Good | $1.0B |
| ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 6.41 | 16.99 | +62% | 71Good | $825M |
| STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | 12.38 | 22.66 | +45% | 84Prime | $4.6B |
| PMTU PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | 25.10 | 172.24 | +85% | 39No options | $807M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ARR
Is ARR undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 13.66 the stock is 64% below the average fair value of 37.56 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ARR and what does it mean?
ARR scores 72 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ARR?
37.56 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ARR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 232 listed contracts with 32,203 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 32% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.