Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is EFC undervalued?
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) closed at 11.90 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 6 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 35.23, which puts the price 66% below it. 5 of the 6 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 6 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 7.07 while GLS Growth gives 108.25. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files EFC under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for EFC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 24.95 | +110% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 28.53 | +140% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 7.07 | -41% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 108.25 | +810% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 22.95 | +93% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 19.65 | +65% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -134.07 | -1227% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 14.00 | +18% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: EFC passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 5.5 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.8%, ROE 8.0%, ROA 0.8% - with debt at 9.25 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 9.25 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 13.11% (payout ratio 92%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 2/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | 0.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.5 / 10 | ROE | 8.0% |
| Debt / equity | 9.25 | ROA | 0.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -21.3% | Payout ratio | 92% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 2 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
EFC scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 7/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 9/20, Stability 17/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 24% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (9 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 13,308 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.2M shares a day on a market cap of $1.5B, with a beta of 0.97; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 66% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.5/10 | |
| Premium | 9 / 20 | implied volatility 24% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 2.2M shares/day, $1.5B cap, beta 0.97 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium. The shares go ex-dividend on 30 Oct 2026 (0.1300 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ellington Financial Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | 10.78 | 34.88 | +69% | 81Prime | $1.8B |
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | 13.66 | 37.56 | +64% | 72Good | $1.9B |
| SCCG Sachem Capital Corp. 8.00% Note | 24.53 | 1.77 | -1289% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| SCCD Sachem Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes Due 2026 | 24.93 | 1.77 | -1312% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| SCCF Sachem Capital Corp. 7.125% Not | 24.44 | 1.77 | -1284% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| LADR Ladder Capital Corp | 8.82 | 11.73 | +25% | 76Good | $1.1B |
| ORC Orchid Island Capital, Inc. | 5.18 | 14.30 | +64% | 72Good | $1.0B |
| DX Dynex Capital, Inc. | 11.12 | 39.34 | +72% | 79Good | $2.8B |
| RWTN Redwood Trust, Inc. 9.125% Seni | 22.50 | 7.87 | -186% | 25No options | $2.8B |
| ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 6.41 | 16.99 | +62% | 71Good | $825M |
| PMTU PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | 25.10 | 172.24 | +85% | 39No options | $807M |
| MITN TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc 9.500% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.00 | 132.12 | +81% | 39No options | $795M |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about EFC
Is EFC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 11.90 the stock is 66% below the average fair value of 35.23 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of EFC and what does it mean?
EFC scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for EFC?
35.23 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ellington Financial Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does EFC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 100 listed contracts with 13,308 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 24% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.