Stock fact sheet · data as of
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Regulated Gas · United States · Defensive
Is ATO undervalued?
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) closed at 163.95 on 16 Oct 2026, 55% above the GLS average fair value of 105.99. 5 of the 6 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 6 models disagree widely: DDM gives 58.86 while Graham Growth gives 190.03. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ATO under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for ATO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 130.35 | -20% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 190.03 | +16% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 61.77 | -62% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 102.39 | -38% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 58.86 | -64% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 92.57 | -44% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -85.42 | -152% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 181.71 | +11% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - ATO passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 6.3 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.2%, ROE 8.8%, ROA 4.1% - with debt at 0.69 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.44% at a payout ratio of 45%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Distribution 88%, Pipeline and Storage 12% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 5.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.3 / 10 | ROE | 8.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.69 | ROA | 4.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -7.3% | Payout ratio | 45% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 49: Weak
ATO scores 49 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 11/20, Stability 18/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 26% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (11 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 2,439 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 884k shares a day on a market cap of $27.7B, with a beta of 0.57 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -55% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.3/10 | |
| Premium | 11 / 20 | implied volatility 26% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 884k shares/day, $27.7B cap, beta 0.57 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Gas
The 12 companies below are the closest to Atmos Energy Corporation by market cap within the Regulated Gas industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AILIO Ameren Illinois Company PFD 4.26% | 66.00 | 151.21 | +56% | 39No options | $28.1B |
| AILIP Ameren Illinois Company PFD 4.20% | 66.48 | 33.80 | -97% | 34No options | $29.2B |
| AILLP Ameren Illinois Company PFD 4% | 60.30 | 34.20 | -76% | 33No options | $29.2B |
| NI NiSource Inc | 41.25 | 21.62 | -91% | 52Fair | $19.8B |
| UGI UGI Corporation | 37.21 | 32.66 | -14% | 53Fair | $8.0B |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | 85.30 | 115.31 | +26% | 69Good | $6.2B |
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | 75.87 | 40.35 | -88% | 54Fair | $5.8B |
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | 51.53 | 44.50 | -16% | 59Fair | $5.2B |
| SR Spire Inc. | 79.80 | 171.07 | +53% | 64Fair | $4.7B |
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | 74.56 | 46.32 | -61% | 53Fair | $4.7B |
| BIPC Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation | 37.63 | 26.41 | -42% | 45Weak | $4.6B |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 18.61 | 11.63 | -60% | 49Weak | $3.9B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ATO
Is ATO undervalued right now?
No: at 163.95 the stock trades 55% above the GLS average fair value of 105.99 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of ATO and what does it mean?
ATO scores 49 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ATO?
105.99 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Atmos Energy Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ATO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 234 listed contracts with 2,439 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 26% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.