Stock fact sheet · data as of
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol ATO · Utilities · Regulated Gas · United States · Growth
Is ATO undervalued?
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) closed at 176.57 on 5 Nov 2026, 67% above the GLS average fair value of 106.01. 5 of the 6 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 6 models disagree widely: DDM gives 58.86 while Graham Growth gives 190.48. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, ATO is clearly faster-growing than it is cheap, so the nightly engine files it under Growth (value score 32, growth score 57, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for ATO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 130.35 | -26% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 190.48 | +8% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 62.00 | -65% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 101.81 | -42% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 58.86 | -67% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 92.57 | -48% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -85.42 | -148% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 181.71 | +3% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - ATO passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 6.3 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.2%, ROE 8.8%, ROA 4.1% - with debt at 0.69 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.27% at a payout ratio of 45%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Distribution 88%, Pipeline and Storage 12% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 5.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.3 / 10 | ROE | 8.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.69 | ROA | 4.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -6.8% | Payout ratio | 45% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 28: Weak
ATO scores 28 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 67% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 5/9 (under 6); and filter 7, a premium worth selling - implied volatility 24% (under 25%), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium weak, moat good, health fair, red flags strong, option trading weak, stability strong. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility on the near-the-money contracts is 24%, below the 25% the Wheel Trade Filter on premium asks for: a put pays too little to be worth selling. Chain open interest is thin - 1,761 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 1.4M shares a day on a market cap of $29.8B, with a beta of 0.55 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 67% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 5/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Fails | implied volatility 24% (under 25%) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 67% above fair value | |
| Premium | Weak | implied volatility 24% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.3/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 90/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 223 contracts a day, 1,761 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 0.55, $29.8B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Feb 2027, 89 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Gas
The 12 companies below are the closest to Atmos Energy Corporation by market cap within the Regulated Gas industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AILIO Ameren Illinois Company PFD 4.26% | 66.00 | 35.77 | -84% | 16No options | $29.1B |
| AILIP Ameren Illinois Company PFD 4.20% | 66.48 | 35.90 | -85% | 16No options | $29.1B |
| NI NiSource Inc | 45.29 | 25.42 | -78% | 20Weak | $21.7B |
| UGI UGI Corporation | 38.11 | 32.46 | -17% | 29Weak | $8.2B |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | 92.33 | 65.84 | -40% | 25Weak | $6.7B |
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | 84.27 | 38.57 | -118% | 30Weak | $6.4B |
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | 55.06 | 44.64 | -23% | 28Weak | $5.6B |
| SR Spire Inc. | 90.31 | 171.00 | +47% | 36Weak | $5.3B |
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | 82.22 | 47.74 | -72% | 23Weak | $5.2B |
| BIPC Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation | 38.39 | 26.41 | -45% | 29Weak | $4.7B |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 19.82 | 11.44 | -73% | 35Weak | $4.2B |
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | 141.70 | 83.37 | -70% | 29Weak | $3.4B |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ATO
Is ATO undervalued right now?
No: at 176.57 the stock trades 67% above the GLS average fair value of 106.01 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of ATO and what does it mean?
ATO scores 28 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 3, 4, 7. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for ATO?
106.01 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Atmos Energy Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Feb 2027, 89 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ATO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 134 listed contracts with 1,761 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 24% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.