Stock fact sheet · data as of
New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol NJR · Utilities · Regulated Gas · United States · Blend
Is NJR undervalued?
NJR closed at 55.06 on 5 Nov 2026, which is 23% above the GLS average fair value of 44.64 from 8 models. 6 of them value the shares below today's price. Our scans read that as "no margin of safety": the stock is not a value candidate at this price, whatever the quality numbers say.
The 8 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 13.01 while 10 Cap gives 105.91. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for NJR, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 40, growth score 50, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for NJR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 46.16 | -16% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 82.06 | +49% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 26.57 | -52% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 13.01 | -76% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 105.91 | +92% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 14.84 | -73% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 28.32 | -49% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 40.25 | -27% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -45.50 | -183% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 63.25 | +15% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - NJR passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.2 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.4%, ROE 14.0%, ROA 4.4% - with debt at 1.58 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.4%.
The dividend yield is 3.50% at a payout ratio of 78%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Natural Gas Distribution 58%, Energy Services 23%, Storage And Transportation 9% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 5.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.2 / 10 | ROE | 14.0% |
| Debt / equity | 1.58 | ROA | 4.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.4% | Payout ratio | 78% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 28: Weak
NJR scores 28 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (126 open interest, 46 a day); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 23% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 5/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - 7.0 years to repay its debt (over 6), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium fair, moat fair, health fair, red flags strong, option trading weak, stability good. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 29% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is thin - 126 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 892k shares a day on a market cap of $5.6B, with a beta of 0.47 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (126 open interest, 46 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 23% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 5/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 7.0 years to repay its debt (over 6) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 23% above fair value | |
| Premium | Fair | implied volatility 29% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 4.2/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 90/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 46 contracts a day, 126 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 0.47, $5.6B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
New Jersey Resources Corporation reports earnings on 18 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Gas
The 12 companies below are the closest to New Jersey Resources Corporation by market cap within the Regulated Gas industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SR Spire Inc. | 90.31 | 171.00 | +47% | 36Weak | $5.3B |
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | 82.22 | 47.74 | -72% | 23Weak | $5.2B |
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | 84.27 | 38.57 | -118% | 30Weak | $6.4B |
| BIPC Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation | 38.39 | 26.41 | -45% | 29Weak | $4.7B |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | 92.33 | 65.84 | -40% | 25Weak | $6.7B |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 19.82 | 11.44 | -73% | 35Weak | $4.2B |
| UGI UGI Corporation | 38.11 | 32.46 | -17% | 29Weak | $8.2B |
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | 141.70 | 83.37 | -70% | 29Weak | $3.4B |
| NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company | 51.32 | 33.82 | -52% | 31Weak | $2.2B |
| CTRI Centuri Holdings, Inc. | 20.54 | 8.04 | -155% | 31Weak | $2.1B |
| NI NiSource Inc | 45.29 | 25.42 | -78% | 20Weak | $21.7B |
| AILIP Ameren Illinois Company PFD 4.20% | 66.48 | 35.90 | -85% | 16No options | $29.1B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NJR
Is NJR undervalued right now?
No: at 55.06 the stock trades 23% above the GLS average fair value of 44.64 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of NJR and what does it mean?
NJR scores 28 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 3, 4, 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for NJR?
44.64 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does New Jersey Resources Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 18 Nov 2026 (after the close), 13 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NJR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 36 listed contracts with 126 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 29% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.