Stock fact sheet · data as of
ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Regulated Gas · United States · Defensive
Is OGS undervalued?
ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) closed at 74.56 on 16 Oct 2026, 61% above the GLS average fair value of 46.32. 5 of the 7 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (13.40) and Graham Growth (88.21). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files OGS under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for OGS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 76.08 | +2% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 88.21 | +18% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 25.65 | -66% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 13.40 | -82% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 30.14 | -60% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 39.88 | -47% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 50.87 | -32% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -79.11 | -206% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 87.00 | +17% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
ONE Gas, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability OGS scores 5.1/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.9%, ROE 7.7%, ROA 2.8% - with debt at 0.99 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 3.63% at a payout ratio of 58%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.1 / 10 | ROE | 7.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.99 | ROA | 2.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -3.7% | Payout ratio | 58% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 53: Fair
A Wheel Score of 53 puts ONE Gas, Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 17/20 and Stability 15/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 32% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (17 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 582 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 527k shares a day on a market cap of $4.7B, with a beta of 0.63 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -61% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.1/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 32% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 527k shares/day, $4.7B cap, beta 0.63 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Gas
The 12 companies below are the closest to ONE Gas, Inc. by market cap within the Regulated Gas industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SR Spire Inc. | 79.80 | 171.07 | +53% | 64Fair | $4.7B |
| BIPC Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation | 37.63 | 26.41 | -42% | 45Weak | $4.6B |
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | 51.53 | 44.50 | -16% | 59Fair | $5.2B |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 18.61 | 11.63 | -60% | 49Weak | $3.9B |
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | 75.87 | 40.35 | -88% | 54Fair | $5.8B |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | 85.30 | 115.31 | +26% | 69Good | $6.2B |
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | 130.66 | 82.95 | -58% | 47Weak | $3.1B |
| UGI UGI Corporation | 37.21 | 32.66 | -14% | 53Fair | $8.0B |
| NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company | 48.35 | 33.78 | -43% | 49Weak | $2.0B |
| CTRI Centuri Holdings, Inc. | 19.76 | 8.02 | -147% | 56Fair | $2.0B |
| NI NiSource Inc | 41.25 | 21.62 | -91% | 52Fair | $19.8B |
| ATO Atmos Energy Corporation | 163.95 | 105.99 | -55% | 49Weak | $27.7B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about OGS
Is OGS undervalued right now?
No: at 74.56 the stock trades 61% above the GLS average fair value of 46.32 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of OGS and what does it mean?
OGS scores 53 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for OGS?
46.32 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does ONE Gas, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does OGS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 162 listed contracts with 582 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 32% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.