Stock fact sheet · data as of
Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol NWN · Utilities · Regulated Gas · United States · Blend
Is NWN undervalued?
Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) closed at 51.32 on 5 Nov 2026, 52% above the GLS average fair value of 33.82. 5 of the 6 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (15.65) and Graham Growth (58.13). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for NWN, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 42, growth score 50, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for NWN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 49.85 | -3% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 58.13 | +13% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 17.03 | -67% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 15.65 | -70% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 29.10 | -43% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 33.19 | -35% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -98.79 | -293% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 52.50 | +2% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Northwest Natural Holding Company scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability NWN scores 5.3/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.7%, ROE 7.7%, ROA 1.8% - with debt at 1.87 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 3.85% at a payout ratio of 63%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Alternative revenue 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 4/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 2.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.3 / 10 | ROE | 7.7% |
| Debt / equity | 1.87 | ROA | 1.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -12.3% | Payout ratio | 63% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 4 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 31: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 31 Northwest Natural Holding Company sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (295 open interest, 30 a day); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 52% above our fair value; and filter 5, can repay its debt - 8.7 years to repay its debt (over 6); Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 31% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is thin - 295 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 302k shares a day on a market cap of $2.2B, with a beta of 0.40 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (295 open interest, 30 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 52% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 8.7 years to repay its debt (over 6) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 52% above fair value | |
| Premium | Good | implied volatility 31% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 5.3/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 85/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 30 contracts a day, 295 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.40, $2.2B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Northwest Natural Holding Company reports earnings on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Analysts downgraded NWN 1 time in the last 30 days with no upgrades; the latest action was a downgrade by Morgan Stanley on 22 Oct 2026.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Gas
The 12 companies below are the closest to Northwest Natural Holding Company by market cap within the Regulated Gas industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTRI Centuri Holdings, Inc. | 20.54 | 8.04 | -155% | 31Weak | $2.1B |
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | 141.70 | 83.37 | -70% | 29Weak | $3.4B |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 19.82 | 11.44 | -73% | 35Weak | $4.2B |
| BIPC Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation | 38.39 | 26.41 | -45% | 29Weak | $4.7B |
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | 82.22 | 47.74 | -72% | 23Weak | $5.2B |
| SR Spire Inc. | 90.31 | 171.00 | +47% | 36Weak | $5.3B |
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | 55.06 | 44.64 | -23% | 28Weak | $5.6B |
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | 84.27 | 38.57 | -118% | 30Weak | $6.4B |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | 92.33 | 65.84 | -40% | 25Weak | $6.7B |
| UGI UGI Corporation | 38.11 | 32.46 | -17% | 29Weak | $8.2B |
| RGCO RGC Resources, Inc. | 23.83 | 15.15 | -57% | 35Weak | $248M |
| NI NiSource Inc | 45.29 | 25.42 | -78% | 20Weak | $21.7B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NWN
Is NWN undervalued right now?
No: at 51.32 the stock trades 52% above the GLS average fair value of 33.82 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of NWN and what does it mean?
NWN scores 31 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 3, 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for NWN?
33.82 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Northwest Natural Holding Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 0 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NWN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 32 listed contracts with 295 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 31% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.