Stock fact sheet · data as of
Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Regulated Gas · United States · High Yield Income
Is NWN undervalued?
Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) closed at 48.35 on 16 Oct 2026, 43% above the GLS average fair value of 33.78. 4 of the 6 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (15.80) and Graham Growth (57.94). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NWN under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for NWN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 49.85 | +3% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 57.94 | +20% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 16.93 | -65% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 15.80 | -67% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 28.99 | -40% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 33.19 | -31% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -98.79 | -304% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 54.00 | +12% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Northwest Natural Holding Company scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.5/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.7%, ROE 7.7%, ROA 1.8% - with debt at 1.87 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 4.07% (payout ratio 63%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Alternative revenue 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 4/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 2.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.5 / 10 | ROE | 7.7% |
| Debt / equity | 1.87 | ROA | 1.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -13.1% | Payout ratio | 63% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 4 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 49: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 49 Northwest Natural Holding Company sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 16/20, Stability 13/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 31% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (16 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 469 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 347k shares a day on a market cap of $2.0B, with a beta of 0.39 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -43% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.5/10 | |
| Premium | 16 / 20 | implied volatility 31% | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 347k shares/day, $2.0B cap, beta 0.39 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium. The shares go ex-dividend on 30 Oct 2026 (0.5000 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Gas
The 12 companies below are the closest to Northwest Natural Holding Company by market cap within the Regulated Gas industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTRI Centuri Holdings, Inc. | 19.76 | 8.02 | -147% | 56Fair | $2.0B |
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | 130.66 | 82.95 | -58% | 47Weak | $3.1B |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 18.61 | 11.63 | -60% | 49Weak | $3.9B |
| BIPC Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation | 37.63 | 26.41 | -42% | 45Weak | $4.6B |
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | 74.56 | 46.32 | -61% | 53Fair | $4.7B |
| SR Spire Inc. | 79.80 | 171.07 | +53% | 64Fair | $4.7B |
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | 51.53 | 44.50 | -16% | 59Fair | $5.2B |
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | 75.87 | 40.35 | -88% | 54Fair | $5.8B |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | 85.30 | 115.31 | +26% | 69Good | $6.2B |
| UGI UGI Corporation | 37.21 | 32.66 | -14% | 53Fair | $8.0B |
| RGCO RGC Resources, Inc. | 23.01 | 15.14 | -52% | 48Weak | $240M |
| NI NiSource Inc | 41.25 | 21.62 | -91% | 52Fair | $19.8B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NWN
Is NWN undervalued right now?
No: at 48.35 the stock trades 43% above the GLS average fair value of 33.78 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of NWN and what does it mean?
NWN scores 49 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NWN?
33.78 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Northwest Natural Holding Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NWN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 102 listed contracts with 469 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 31% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.