Stock fact sheet · data as of
NiSource Inc (NI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol NI · Utilities · Regulated Gas · United States · Growth
Is NI undervalued?
NI closed at 45.29 on 5 Nov 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 25.42. Only 1 of the 7 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the "below fair value" Wheel Trade Filter keeps names like this under 70.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (9.02) and Graham Growth (55.43). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, NI is clearly faster-growing than it is cheap, so the nightly engine files it under Growth (value score 28, growth score 56, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for NI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 24.42 | -46% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 29.65 | -35% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 55.43 | +22% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 20.02 | -56% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 9.02 | -80% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 17.66 | -61% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 21.77 | -52% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -46.96 | -204% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 49.79 | +10% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
NiSource Inc scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 4.5/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.6%, ROE 9.8%, ROA 2.5% - with debt at 1.72 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.65% at a payout ratio of 61%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Corporate and Other 100% (quarter Q1 FY2024).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 3.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.5 / 10 | ROE | 9.8% |
| Debt / equity | 1.72 | ROA | 2.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -7.2% | Payout ratio | 61% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 20: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 20 NiSource Inc sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 78% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - 6.4 years to repay its debt (over 6); and filter 7, a premium worth selling - implied volatility 21% (under 25%); Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility on the near-the-money contracts is 21%, below the 25% the Wheel Trade Filter on premium asks for: a put pays too little to be worth selling. Chain open interest is 3,504 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 6.1M shares a day on a market cap of $21.7B, with a beta of 0.54 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 78% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 6.4 years to repay its debt (over 6) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Fails | implied volatility 21% (under 25%) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 78% above fair value | |
| Premium | Weak | implied volatility 21% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 4.5/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | Red Flags score 75/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 305 contracts a day, 3,504 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 0.54, $21.7B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for NI in the nightly calendar.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Gas
The 12 companies below are the closest to NiSource Inc by market cap within the Regulated Gas industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AILIP Ameren Illinois Company PFD 4.20% | 66.48 | 35.90 | -85% | 16No options | $29.1B |
| AILIO Ameren Illinois Company PFD 4.26% | 66.00 | 35.77 | -84% | 16No options | $29.1B |
| ATO Atmos Energy Corporation | 176.57 | 106.01 | -67% | 28Weak | $29.8B |
| UGI UGI Corporation | 38.11 | 32.46 | -17% | 29Weak | $8.2B |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | 92.33 | 65.84 | -40% | 25Weak | $6.7B |
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | 84.27 | 38.57 | -118% | 30Weak | $6.4B |
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | 55.06 | 44.64 | -23% | 28Weak | $5.6B |
| SR Spire Inc. | 90.31 | 171.00 | +47% | 36Weak | $5.3B |
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | 82.22 | 47.74 | -72% | 23Weak | $5.2B |
| BIPC Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation | 38.39 | 26.41 | -45% | 29Weak | $4.7B |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 19.82 | 11.44 | -73% | 35Weak | $4.2B |
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | 141.70 | 83.37 | -70% | 29Weak | $3.4B |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NI
Is NI undervalued right now?
No: at 45.29 the stock trades 78% above the GLS average fair value of 25.42 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of NI and what does it mean?
NI scores 20 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 3, 4, 5, 7. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for NI?
25.42 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does NiSource Inc report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for NI in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does NI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 42 listed contracts with 3,504 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 21% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.