Stock fact sheet · data as of
NiSource Inc (NI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Regulated Gas · United States · Defensive
Is NI undervalued?
NI closed at 41.25 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 21.62. Only 1 of the 8 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
There is a wide gap between 10 Cap (3.68) and Graham Growth (52.04). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NI under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for NI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 22.64 | -45% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 29.11 | -29% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 52.04 | +26% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 18.59 | -55% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 8.62 | -79% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 3.68 | -91% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 17.36 | -58% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 20.96 | -49% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -46.96 | -214% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 49.57 | +20% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
NiSource Inc scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 3.8/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.6%, ROE 9.8%, ROA 2.5% - with debt at 1.72 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.86% at a payout ratio of 62%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Corporate and Other 100% (quarter Q1 FY2024).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 3.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.8 / 10 | ROE | 9.8% |
| Debt / equity | 1.72 | ROA | 2.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -5.5% | Payout ratio | 62% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 52: Fair
A Wheel Score of 52 puts NiSource Inc in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 13/20 and Stability 20/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 28% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (13 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 4,617 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 5.9M shares a day on a market cap of $19.8B, with a beta of 0.55 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -91% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 3.8/10 | |
| Premium | 13 / 20 | implied volatility 28% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 5.9M shares/day, $19.8B cap, beta 0.55 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
NiSource Inc reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk. The shares go ex-dividend on 30 Oct 2026 (0.3000 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Gas
The 12 companies below are the closest to NiSource Inc by market cap within the Regulated Gas industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATO Atmos Energy Corporation | 163.95 | 105.99 | -55% | 49Weak | $27.7B |
| AILIO Ameren Illinois Company PFD 4.26% | 66.00 | 151.21 | +56% | 39No options | $28.1B |
| AILIP Ameren Illinois Company PFD 4.20% | 66.48 | 33.80 | -97% | 34No options | $29.2B |
| AILLP Ameren Illinois Company PFD 4% | 60.30 | 34.20 | -76% | 33No options | $29.2B |
| UGI UGI Corporation | 37.21 | 32.66 | -14% | 53Fair | $8.0B |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | 85.30 | 115.31 | +26% | 69Good | $6.2B |
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | 75.87 | 40.35 | -88% | 54Fair | $5.8B |
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | 51.53 | 44.50 | -16% | 59Fair | $5.2B |
| SR Spire Inc. | 79.80 | 171.07 | +53% | 64Fair | $4.7B |
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | 74.56 | 46.32 | -61% | 53Fair | $4.7B |
| BIPC Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation | 37.63 | 26.41 | -42% | 45Weak | $4.6B |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 18.61 | 11.63 | -60% | 49Weak | $3.9B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NI
Is NI undervalued right now?
No: at 41.25 the stock trades 91% above the GLS average fair value of 21.62 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of NI and what does it mean?
NI scores 52 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NI?
21.62 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does NiSource Inc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 96 listed contracts with 4,617 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 28% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.