Stock fact sheet · data as of
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail · China · ADR · Blend
Is BABA undervalued?
At 111.11 (close of 16 Oct 2026), BABA trades 16% over the GLS average fair value of 95.84. 2 of the 7 models land above the price and 5 below. A negative margin of safety costs Value points in the Wheel Score (6 of 25 here) - the models see no discount, which does not make the business a poor one, only the price a full one.
The 7 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 23.72 while Graham Growth gives 213.34. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files BABA under Blend.
Nine valuation models for BABA
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 118.59 | +7% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 70.54 | -37% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 213.34 | +92% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 89.01 | -20% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 23.72 | -79% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 103.15 | -7% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 52.51 | -53% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -70.27 | -163% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 182.00 | +64% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: BABA passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 5.4 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.9%, ROE 9.8%, ROA 5.4% - with debt at 0.25 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 0.95% with a payout ratio of 0% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Customer management services 45%, Sales of goods 22%, Logistics services 14% (fiscal year FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 7.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.4 / 10 | ROE | 9.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.25 | ROA | 5.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -4.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 63: Fair
BABA scores 63 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 6/25, Health 9/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20. Value (6/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 41% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 1,195,453 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 7.9M shares a day on a market cap of $271.8B, with a beta of 0.46 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 6 / 25 | -16% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 41% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 7.9M shares/day, $271.8B cap, beta 0.46 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 24 Nov 2026 (before the open), 39 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Specialty Retail
The 12 companies below are the closest to Alibaba Group Holding Limited by market cap within the Specialty Retail industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | 81.45 | 507.91 | +84% | 87Prime | $115.9B |
| MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | 1,856.98 | 1,877.00 | +1% | 72Good | $94.1B |
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | 88.50 | 54.54 | -62% | 62Fair | $71.6B |
| SE Sea Limited | 95.31 | 113.41 | +16% | 77Good | $58.3B |
| EBAY eBay Inc. | 122.91 | 108.54 | -13% | 71Good | $54.7B |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | 3,059.62 | 2,988.47 | -2% | 67Good | $49.9B |
| JD JD.com, Inc. | 27.39 | 114.53 | +76% | 88Prime | $37.0B |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | 242.48 | 148.10 | -64% | 63Fair | $28.6B |
| AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | 254.76 | 254.86 | +0% | 77Good | $2.75T |
| CPNG Coupang, Inc. | 14.79 | 9.90 | -49% | 45Weak | $26.6B |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | 592.42 | 476.96 | -24% | 61Fair | $25.5B |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 673.63 | 330.95 | -104% | 64Fair | $24.9B |
⚖ Compare BABA with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BABA
Is BABA undervalued right now?
No: at 111.11 the stock trades 16% above the GLS average fair value of 95.84 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of BABA and what does it mean?
BABA scores 63 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for BABA?
95.84 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Alibaba Group Holding Limited report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 24 Nov 2026 (before the open), 39 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does BABA have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 1,195,453 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 41% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.