Stock fact sheet · data as of
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail · United States · Blend
Is ORLY undervalued?
ORLY closed at 88.50 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 54.54. Only 0 of the 7 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The 7 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 19.99 while Graham Growth gives 84.00. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ORLY under Blend.
Nine valuation models for ORLY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 77.72 | -12% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 84.00 | -5% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 29.30 | -67% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 19.99 | -77% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 78.63 | -11% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 56.41 | -36% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 35.69 | -60% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -13.05 | -115% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 106.09 | +20% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health ORLY scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 6.1 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 32.8%, ROE -332.5%, ROA 15.3% - with debt at -11.12 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.0%.
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Automotive Aftermarket Parts 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.1 / 10 | ROE | -332.5% |
| Debt / equity | -11.12 | ROA | 15.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 62: Fair
ORLY scores 62 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 20/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 32% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (17 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 58,655 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 5.8M shares a day on a market cap of $71.6B, with a beta of 0.54 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -62% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.1/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 32% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 5.8M shares/day, $71.6B cap, beta 0.54 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Specialty Retail
The 12 companies below are the closest to O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. by market cap within the Specialty Retail industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SE Sea Limited | 95.31 | 113.41 | +16% | 77Good | $58.3B |
| EBAY eBay Inc. | 122.91 | 108.54 | -13% | 71Good | $54.7B |
| MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | 1,856.98 | 1,877.00 | +1% | 72Good | $94.1B |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | 3,059.62 | 2,988.47 | -2% | 67Good | $49.9B |
| PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | 81.45 | 507.91 | +84% | 87Prime | $115.9B |
| JD JD.com, Inc. | 27.39 | 114.53 | +76% | 88Prime | $37.0B |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | 242.48 | 148.10 | -64% | 63Fair | $28.6B |
| CPNG Coupang, Inc. | 14.79 | 9.90 | -49% | 45Weak | $26.6B |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | 592.42 | 476.96 | -24% | 61Fair | $25.5B |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 673.63 | 330.95 | -104% | 64Fair | $24.9B |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | 94.17 | 93.88 | -0% | 78Good | $19.8B |
| BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited | 111.11 | 95.84 | -16% | 63Fair | $271.8B |
⚖ Compare ORLY with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ORLY
Is ORLY undervalued right now?
No: at 88.50 the stock trades 62% above the GLS average fair value of 54.54 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of ORLY and what does it mean?
ORLY scores 62 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ORLY?
54.54 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ORLY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 528 listed contracts with 58,655 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 32% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.