Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · United States · Blend
Is CAKE undervalued?
At 116.59 (close of 16 Oct 2026), CAKE trades 25% over the GLS average fair value of 93.42. 3 of the 9 models land above the price and 6 below. A negative margin of safety costs Value points in the Wheel Score (2 of 25 here) - the models see no discount, which does not make the business a poor one, only the price a full one.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 17.22 while GLS Growth gives 234.51. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CAKE under Blend.
Nine valuation models for CAKE
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 48.40 | -58% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 30.97 | -73% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 127.72 | +10% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 49.03 | -58% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 234.51 | +101% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 115.20 | -1% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 175.20 | +50% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 17.22 | -85% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 42.56 | -63% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -47.64 | -141% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 89.36 | -23% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - CAKE passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.8 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.8%, ROE 34.0%, ROA 4.6% - with debt at 7.93 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.6%. Debt of 7.93 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 1.00% with a payout ratio of 31% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from The Cheesecake Factory 71%, Other FRC 10%, North Italia 10% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 3.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.8 / 10 | ROE | 34.0% |
| Debt / equity | 7.93 | ROA | 4.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.6% | Payout ratio | 31% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 57: Fair
CAKE scores 57 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 2/25, Health 11/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 18/20. Value (2/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 49% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 29,987 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.5M shares a day on a market cap of $5.8B, with a beta of 1.04; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 2 / 25 | -25% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 3.8/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 49% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 1.5M shares/day, $5.8B cap, beta 1.04 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Restaurants
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated by market cap within the Restaurants industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. | 55.40 | 13.31 | -316% | 56Fair | $6.5B |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | 41.10 | 24.65 | -67% | 54Fair | $7.7B |
| EAT Brinker International, Inc. | 204.91 | 291.64 | +30% | 90Prime | $8.6B |
| DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | 303.09 | 307.19 | +1% | 77Good | $10.0B |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | 122.90 | 137.21 | +10% | 69Good | $3.3B |
| TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | 166.64 | 124.53 | -34% | 64Fair | $10.9B |
| SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | 68.77 | 27.84 | -147% | 54Fair | $2.8B |
| CHA Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares | 12.44 | 63.22 | +80% | 39No options | $2.4B |
| YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. | 43.20 | 69.88 | +38% | 91Prime | $14.8B |
| ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 8.06 | 20.68 | +61% | 81Prime | $1.7B |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | 67.41 | 29.15 | -131% | 50Fair | $1.5B |
| DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | 214.31 | 160.14 | -34% | 62Fair | $24.2B |
⚖ Compare CAKE with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CAKE
Is CAKE undervalued right now?
No: at 116.59 the stock trades 25% above the GLS average fair value of 93.42 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of CAKE and what does it mean?
CAKE scores 57 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CAKE?
93.42 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close), 11 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CAKE have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 610 listed contracts with 29,987 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 49% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.