Stock fact sheet · data as of
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol CINF · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · Blend
Is CINF undervalued?
At 190.48 (close of 5 Nov 2026), CINF trades 49% below the GLS average fair value of 375.36. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 7 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Cincinnati Financial Corporation the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 38.42 while GLS Growth gives 1,062.48. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for CINF, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 63, growth score 75, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for CINF
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 329.33 | +73% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 202.89 | +7% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 219.38 | +15% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 38.42 | -80% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1,062.48 | +458% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 484.07 | +154% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 794.54 | +317% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 54.30 | -71% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 192.83 | +1% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -7.43 | -104% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 198.00 | +4% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health CINF scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 7.1 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 14.2%, ROE 15.0%, ROA 5.8% - with debt at 0.06 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 10.5%.
The dividend yield is 1.94% at a payout ratio of 21%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Commercial Lines Insurance 52%, Personal Lines Insurance 37%, Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance 8% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 9/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 18 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 14.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.1 / 10 | ROE | 15.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.06 | ROA | 5.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 10.5% | Payout ratio | 21% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 9 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 43: Weak
CINF scores 43 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 7, a premium worth selling - implied volatility 24% (under 25%), and the parts are thin too - value strong, premium weak, moat good, health good, red flags fair, option trading weak, stability strong. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility on the near-the-money contracts is 24%, below the 25% the Wheel Trade Filter on premium asks for: a put pays too little to be worth selling. Chain open interest is 6,354 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 971k shares a day on a market cap of $29.2B, with a beta of 0.49 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Fails | implied volatility 24% (under 25%) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 49% below fair value | |
| Premium | Weak | implied volatility 24% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 7.1/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | Red Flags score 75/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 287 contracts a day, 6,354 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 0.49, $29.2B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for CINF in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Cincinnati Financial Corporation by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | 76.71 | 88.33 | +13% | 40Weak | $28.5B |
| MKL Markel Corporation | 1,954.51 | 4,032.71 | +52% | 41Weak | $23.9B |
| L Loews Corporation | 111.67 | 209.81 | +47% | 48Weak | $22.6B |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | 308.52 | 518.65 | +41% | 48Weak | $15.2B |
| AIZN Assurant, Inc. 5.25% Subordinat | 16.91 | 153.03 | +89% | 29No options | $15.2B |
| CNA CNA Financial Corporation | 48.02 | 113.38 | +58% | 53Fair | $13.0B |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | 279.96 | 237.17 | -18% | 42Weak | $12.9B |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | 154.77 | 185.90 | +17% | 38Weak | $12.8B |
| ALL The Allstate Corporation | 269.06 | 790.94 | +66% | 84Good | $68.0B |
| TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | 409.25 | 754.00 | +46% | 77Good | $83.9B |
| ORI Old Republic International Corporation | 39.96 | 56.77 | +30% | 39Weak | $9.6B |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | 391.73 | 618.66 | +37% | 82Good | $8.8B |
⚖ Compare CINF with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CINF
Is CINF undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 190.48 the stock is 49% below the average fair value of 375.36 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of CINF and what does it mean?
CINF scores 43 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 7. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for CINF?
375.36 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Cincinnati Financial Corporation report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for CINF in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does CINF have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 90 listed contracts with 6,354 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 24% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.