Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · Value
Is TRV undervalued?
TRV has a margin of safety of 50%: the stock closed at 377.82 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 755.75. 6 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 69.16 while Payback Time gives 1,699.54. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files TRV under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for TRV
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 889.61 | +135% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 373.69 | -1% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 636.37 | +68% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 157.78 | -58% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1,296.84 | +243% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 1,240.48 | +228% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 1,699.54 | +350% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 69.16 | -82% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 438.27 | +16% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -289.90 | -177% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 353.80 | -6% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - TRV passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 8.5 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 14.9%, ROE 19.1%, ROA 4.4% - with debt at 0.28 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 14.0%.
The dividend yield is 1.24% with a payout ratio of 12% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Business Insurance 54%, Personal Insurance 36%, Bond & Specialty Insurance 10% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 4/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 14.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.5 / 10 | ROE | 19.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.28 | ROA | 4.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.0% | Payout ratio | 12% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 4 / 10 |
Wheel Score 84: Prime
TRV scores 84 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (13/15), the option premium on offer (14/20) and how easily the stock trades (19/20).
Implied volatility is 29% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (14 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 14,727 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.3M shares a day on a market cap of $78.8B, with a beta of 0.44 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 50% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 13 / 15 | moat 8.5/10 | |
| Premium | 14 / 20 | implied volatility 29% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 1.3M shares/day, $78.8B cap, beta 0.44 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The Travelers Companies, Inc. reports earnings on 16 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Travelers Companies, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL The Allstate Corporation | 239.60 | 964.49 | +75% | 90Prime | $60.6B |
| PGR The Progressive Corporation | 213.46 | 465.89 | +54% | 88Prime | $124.0B |
| CB Chubb Limited | 352.79 | 592.59 | +40% | 84Prime | $136.1B |
| WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | 73.80 | 95.04 | +22% | 85Prime | $27.4B |
| CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 167.22 | 449.78 | +63% | 84Prime | $25.7B |
| MKL Markel Corporation | 1,824.54 | 5,307.56 | +66% | 68Good | $22.6B |
| L Loews Corporation | 108.79 | 231.90 | +53% | 82Prime | $22.2B |
| AIZN Assurant, Inc. 5.25% Subordinat | 17.18 | 154.79 | +89% | 39No options | $14.0B |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | 281.87 | 513.45 | +45% | 87Prime | $13.9B |
| CNA CNA Financial Corporation | 47.31 | 105.66 | +55% | 87Prime | $12.8B |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | 145.73 | 182.51 | +20% | 67Good | $12.1B |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | 238.69 | 218.24 | -9% | 69Good | $11.0B |
⚖ Compare TRV with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TRV
Is TRV undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 377.82 the stock is 50% below the average fair value of 755.75 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of TRV and what does it mean?
TRV scores 84 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TRV?
755.75 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Travelers Companies, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 16 Oct 2026 (before the open), 0 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TRV have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 752 listed contracts with 14,727 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 29% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.