Stock fact sheet · data as of
Old Republic International Corporation (ORI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · High Yield Income
Is ORI undervalued?
At 38.67 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ORI trades 53% below the GLS average fair value of 81.52. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 8 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Old Republic International Corporation the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 30.38 while Payback Time gives 146.37. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ORI under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for ORI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 80.78 | +109% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 51.87 | +34% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 98.78 | +155% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 30.38 | -21% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 86.72 | +124% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 131.16 | +239% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 146.37 | +279% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 54.96 | +42% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 52.63 | +36% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -39.90 | -203% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 41.50 | +7% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health ORI scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.5%, ROE 15.8%, ROA 3.1% - with debt at 0.27 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 13.7%.
The dividend yield is high at 9.66% (payout ratio 80%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Title Insurance Group 100%, Corporate & Other 0% (quarter Q4 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 8/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.7 / 10 | ROE | 15.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.27 | ROA | 3.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 13.7% | Payout ratio | 80% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 8 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 78: Good
ORI scores 78 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (7/15), the option premium on offer (11/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Moat (7/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 26% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (11 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 2,302 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.0M shares a day on a market cap of $9.3B, with a beta of 0.59 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 53% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.7/10 | |
| Premium | 11 / 20 | implied volatility 26% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 3.0M shares/day, $9.3B cap, beta 0.59 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Old Republic International Corporation reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Old Republic International Corporation by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | 357.49 | 648.69 | +45% | 85Prime | $8.1B |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | 238.69 | 218.24 | -9% | 69Good | $11.0B |
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 226.17 | 567.49 | +60% | 79Good | $7.9B |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | 145.73 | 182.51 | +20% | 67Good | $12.1B |
| CNA CNA Financial Corporation | 47.31 | 105.66 | +55% | 87Prime | $12.8B |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | 281.87 | 513.45 | +45% | 87Prime | $13.9B |
| AIZN Assurant, Inc. 5.25% Subordinat | 17.18 | 154.79 | +89% | 39No options | $14.0B |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | 101.79 | 362.23 | +72% | 82Prime | $5.6B |
| RLI RLI Corp. | 57.63 | 80.12 | +28% | 83Prime | $5.3B |
| HGTY Hagerty, Inc. | 15.30 | 17.27 | +11% | 70Good | $5.3B |
| SIGIP Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 15.14 | 104.89 | +86% | 39No options | $5.1B |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 86.21 | 221.49 | +61% | 85Prime | $5.1B |
⚖ Compare ORI with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ORI
Is ORI undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 38.67 the stock is 53% below the average fair value of 81.52 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ORI and what does it mean?
ORI scores 78 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ORI?
81.52 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Old Republic International Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 22 Oct 2026 (before the open), 6 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ORI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 90 listed contracts with 2,302 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 26% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.