Stock fact sheet · data as of
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · High Yield Income
Is AFG undervalued?
AFG closed at 145.73 on 16 Oct 2026, 20% below the GLS average fair value of 182.51 from 9 models (3 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 21 of the 25 Value points.
The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 8.25 while 10 Cap gives 414.58. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files AFG under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for AFG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 341.66 | +134% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 122.50 | -16% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 111.56 | -23% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 8.25 | -94% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 55.66 | -62% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 414.58 | +184% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 356.17 | +144% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 104.62 | -28% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 127.58 | -12% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -191.84 | -232% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 156.00 | +7% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - AFG passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.7%, ROE 17.5%, ROA 2.6% - with debt at 0.38 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.8%.
The dividend yield is high at 4.88% (payout ratio 60%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Property and Casualty Insurance 95%, Corporate and Other 5% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 12.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 17.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.38 | ROA | 2.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 11.8% | Payout ratio | 60% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 67: Good
AFG scores 67 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 21/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (6/15), the option premium on offer (11/20) and how easily the stock trades (16/20). Moat (6/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 26% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (11 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 893 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 432k shares a day on a market cap of $12.1B, with a beta of 0.58 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 21 / 25 | 20% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Premium | 11 / 20 | implied volatility 26% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 432k shares/day, $12.1B cap, beta 0.58 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to American Financial Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNA CNA Financial Corporation | 47.31 | 105.66 | +55% | 87Prime | $12.8B |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | 238.69 | 218.24 | -9% | 69Good | $11.0B |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | 281.87 | 513.45 | +45% | 87Prime | $13.9B |
| AIZN Assurant, Inc. 5.25% Subordinat | 17.18 | 154.79 | +89% | 39No options | $14.0B |
| ORI Old Republic International Corporation | 38.67 | 81.52 | +53% | 78Good | $9.3B |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | 357.49 | 648.69 | +45% | 85Prime | $8.1B |
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 226.17 | 567.49 | +60% | 79Good | $7.9B |
| L Loews Corporation | 108.79 | 231.90 | +53% | 82Prime | $22.2B |
| MKL Markel Corporation | 1,824.54 | 5,307.56 | +66% | 68Good | $22.6B |
| CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 167.22 | 449.78 | +63% | 84Prime | $25.7B |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | 101.79 | 362.23 | +72% | 82Prime | $5.6B |
| WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | 73.80 | 95.04 | +22% | 85Prime | $27.4B |
⚖ Compare AFG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AFG
Is AFG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 145.73 the stock trades 20% below the average fair value of 182.51 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of AFG and what does it mean?
AFG scores 67 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AFG?
182.51 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does American Financial Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AFG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 230 listed contracts with 893 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 26% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.