Stock fact sheet · data as of
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Railroads · Canada · Blend
Is CNI undervalued?
At 120.74 (close of 16 Oct 2026), CNI trades 44% over the GLS average fair value of 83.94, with 2 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 20.57 while 10 Cap gives 188.32. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CNI under Blend.
Nine valuation models for CNI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 52.77 | -56% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 80.04 | -34% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 136.54 | +13% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 46.24 | -62% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 20.57 | -83% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 188.32 | +56% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 115.86 | -4% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 53.45 | -56% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 61.66 | -49% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -56.99 | -147% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 131.75 | +9% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health CNI scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 6.3 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 10.9%, ROE 21.9%, ROA 8.1% - with debt at 1.01 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.4%.
The dividend yield is 2.12% at a payout ratio of 46%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold.
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.3 / 10 | ROE | 21.9% |
| Debt / equity | 1.01 | ROA | 8.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.4% | Payout ratio | 46% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 55: Fair
CNI scores 55 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 11/20, Stability 18/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 26% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (11 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 14,681 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.1M shares a day on a market cap of $73.1B, with a beta of 0.97; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -44% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.3/10 | |
| Premium | 11 / 20 | implied volatility 26% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 1.1M shares/day, $73.1B cap, beta 0.97 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Canadian National Railway Company reports earnings on 30 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Railroads
The 10 companies below are the closest to Canadian National Railway Company by market cap within the Railroads industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | 324.83 | 185.26 | -75% | 54Fair | $73.0B |
| CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | 86.91 | 57.72 | -51% | 49Weak | $76.4B |
| CSX CSX Corporation | 48.69 | 27.03 | -80% | 66Good | $90.2B |
| WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 286.52 | 192.49 | -49% | 56Fair | $48.4B |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | 286.43 | 179.35 | -60% | 62Fair | $170.2B |
| TRN Trinity Industries, Inc. | 26.13 | 75.42 | +65% | 79Good | $2.1B |
| GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | 39.27 | 98.48 | +60% | 73Good | $1.2B |
| FSTR L.B. Foster Company | 34.30 | 58.10 | +41% | 74Good | $361M |
| RAIL FreightCar America, Inc. | 6.02 | - | - | 42Weak | $197M |
| RVSN Rail Vision Ltd. | 2.92 | - | - | 31No options | $5M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CNI
Is CNI undervalued right now?
No: at 120.74 the stock trades 44% above the GLS average fair value of 83.94 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CNI and what does it mean?
CNI scores 55 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CNI?
83.94 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Canadian National Railway Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 30 Oct 2026 (before the open), 14 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CNI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 328 listed contracts with 14,681 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 26% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.