Stock fact sheet · data as of
CSX Corporation (CSX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Railroads · United States · Blend
Is CSX undervalued?
CSX closed at 48.69 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 27.03. Only 1 of the 9 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 2.37 while 10 Cap gives 65.65. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CSX under Blend.
Nine valuation models for CSX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 16.95 | -65% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 17.23 | -65% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 48.47 | -0% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 17.40 | -64% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 2.37 | -95% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 65.65 | +35% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 47.85 | -2% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 8.09 | -83% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 19.31 | -60% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -15.10 | -131% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 50.82 | +4% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health CSX scores 9/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 5.0 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.9%, ROE 22.0%, ROA 6.6% - with debt at 1.47 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.6%.
The dividend yield is 1.13% with a payout ratio of 31% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Intermodal 45%, Coal Services 38%, Trucking 17% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 9 / 9 | ROIC | 8.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.0 / 10 | ROE | 22.0% |
| Debt / equity | 1.47 | ROA | 6.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.6% | Payout ratio | 31% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 66: Good
CSX scores 66 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 0/25), Piotroski health (20/20), the GLS moat (8/15), the option premium on offer (18/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Value (0/25) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 33% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (18 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 184,496 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 8.9M shares a day on a market cap of $90.2B, with a beta of 1.20 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -80% margin of safety | |
| Health | 20 / 20 | Piotroski 9/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.0/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 33% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 8.9M shares/day, $90.2B cap, beta 1.20 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
CSX Corporation reports earnings on 21 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk. The next ex-dividend date is 30 Nov 2026 (0.1400 per share).
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Railroads
The 10 companies below are the closest to CSX Corporation by market cap within the Railroads industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | 86.91 | 57.72 | -51% | 49Weak | $76.4B |
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | 120.74 | 83.94 | -44% | 55Fair | $73.1B |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | 324.83 | 185.26 | -75% | 54Fair | $73.0B |
| WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 286.52 | 192.49 | -49% | 56Fair | $48.4B |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | 286.43 | 179.35 | -60% | 62Fair | $170.2B |
| TRN Trinity Industries, Inc. | 26.13 | 75.42 | +65% | 79Good | $2.1B |
| GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | 39.27 | 98.48 | +60% | 73Good | $1.2B |
| FSTR L.B. Foster Company | 34.30 | 58.10 | +41% | 74Good | $361M |
| RAIL FreightCar America, Inc. | 6.02 | - | - | 42Weak | $197M |
| RVSN Rail Vision Ltd. | 2.92 | - | - | 31No options | $5M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CSX
Is CSX undervalued right now?
No: at 48.69 the stock trades 80% above the GLS average fair value of 27.03 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CSX and what does it mean?
CSX scores 66 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CSX?
27.03 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does CSX Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 21 Oct 2026 (after the close), 5 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CSX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 738 listed contracts with 184,496 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 33% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.