Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Railroads · United States · Value
Is GBX undervalued?
At 39.27 (close of 16 Oct 2026), GBX trades 60% below the GLS average fair value of 98.48. That average comes from 6 models run on the latest filings, and 4 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between DDM (19.42) and GLS Growth (202.05). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files GBX under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for GBX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 61.45 | +56% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 188.78 | +381% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 82.51 | +110% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 202.05 | +415% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 19.42 | -51% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 36.67 | -7% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -33.65 | -186% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 54.40 | +39% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.3/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.1%, ROE 13.3%, ROA 4.7% - with debt at 1.20 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 3.36% at a payout ratio of 41%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Manufacturing 92%, Leasing and Management Services 8% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 6.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.3 / 10 | ROE | 13.3% |
| Debt / equity | 1.20 | ROA | 4.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -9.8% | Payout ratio | 41% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 73: Good
With a Wheel Score of 73 - the Good band - The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 11/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 10/20; Moat (6/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 50% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 3,655 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 274k shares a day on a market cap of $1.2B, with a beta of 1.44 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 60% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.3/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 50% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 274k shares/day, $1.2B cap, beta 1.44 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. reports earnings on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Railroads
The 10 companies below are the closest to The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. by market cap within the Railroads industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRN Trinity Industries, Inc. | 26.13 | 75.42 | +65% | 79Good | $2.1B |
| FSTR L.B. Foster Company | 34.30 | 58.10 | +41% | 74Good | $361M |
| RAIL FreightCar America, Inc. | 6.02 | - | - | 42Weak | $197M |
| WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 286.52 | 192.49 | -49% | 56Fair | $48.4B |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | 324.83 | 185.26 | -75% | 54Fair | $73.0B |
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | 120.74 | 83.94 | -44% | 55Fair | $73.1B |
| CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | 86.91 | 57.72 | -51% | 49Weak | $76.4B |
| CSX CSX Corporation | 48.69 | 27.03 | -80% | 66Good | $90.2B |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | 286.43 | 179.35 | -60% | 62Fair | $170.2B |
| RVSN Rail Vision Ltd. | 2.92 | - | - | 31No options | $5M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about GBX
Is GBX undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 39.27 the stock is 60% below the average fair value of 98.48 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of GBX and what does it mean?
GBX scores 73 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for GBX?
98.48 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close), 10 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does GBX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 198 listed contracts with 3,655 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 50% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.