Stock fact sheet · data as of
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Railroads · United States · Blend
Is UNP undervalued?
UNP closed at 286.43 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 179.35. Only 2 of the 9 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
There is a wide gap between DDM (81.81) and Graham Growth (361.38). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files UNP under Blend.
Nine valuation models for UNP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 151.02 | -47% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 98.40 | -66% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 361.38 | +26% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 132.30 | -54% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 81.85 | -71% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 330.69 | +15% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 239.41 | -16% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 81.81 | -71% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 137.25 | -52% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -78.57 | -127% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 332.10 | +16% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Union Pacific Corporation scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability UNP scores 6.2/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 14.2%, ROE 38.7%, ROA 10.2% - with debt at 1.72 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.8%.
The dividend yield is 1.94% at a payout ratio of 45%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Industrial 35%, Premium 30%, Bulk 30% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 14.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.2 / 10 | ROE | 38.7% |
| Debt / equity | 1.72 | ROA | 10.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.8% | Payout ratio | 45% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 62: Fair
A Wheel Score of 62 puts Union Pacific Corporation in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 18/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 15/20 and Stability 20/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 30% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (15 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 71,177 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.5M shares a day on a market cap of $170.2B, with a beta of 0.95; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -60% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.2/10 | |
| Premium | 15 / 20 | implied volatility 30% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.5M shares/day, $170.2B cap, beta 0.95 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Union Pacific Corporation reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Railroads
The 10 companies below are the closest to Union Pacific Corporation by market cap within the Railroads industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSX CSX Corporation | 48.69 | 27.03 | -80% | 66Good | $90.2B |
| CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | 86.91 | 57.72 | -51% | 49Weak | $76.4B |
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | 120.74 | 83.94 | -44% | 55Fair | $73.1B |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | 324.83 | 185.26 | -75% | 54Fair | $73.0B |
| WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 286.52 | 192.49 | -49% | 56Fair | $48.4B |
| TRN Trinity Industries, Inc. | 26.13 | 75.42 | +65% | 79Good | $2.1B |
| GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | 39.27 | 98.48 | +60% | 73Good | $1.2B |
| FSTR L.B. Foster Company | 34.30 | 58.10 | +41% | 74Good | $361M |
| RAIL FreightCar America, Inc. | 6.02 | - | - | 42Weak | $197M |
| RVSN Rail Vision Ltd. | 2.92 | - | - | 31No options | $5M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about UNP
Is UNP undervalued right now?
No: at 286.43 the stock trades 60% above the GLS average fair value of 179.35 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of UNP and what does it mean?
UNP scores 62 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for UNP?
179.35 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Union Pacific Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 22 Oct 2026 (before the open), 6 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does UNP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 71,177 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 30% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.