Stock fact sheet · data as of
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Railroads · Canada · Blend
Is CP undervalued?
At 86.91 (close of 16 Oct 2026), CP trades 51% over the GLS average fair value of 57.72, with 2 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
There is a wide gap between DDM (14.60) and Graham Growth (105.06). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files CP under Blend.
Nine valuation models for CP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 18.04 | -79% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 75.15 | -14% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 105.06 | +21% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 39.44 | -55% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 50.44 | -42% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 103.76 | +19% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 75.61 | -13% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 14.60 | -83% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 37.34 | -57% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -41.16 | -147% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 110.40 | +27% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability CP scores 6.4/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.0%, ROE 9.0%, ROA 4.8% - with debt at 0.51 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.4%.
The dividend yield is 0.80% with a payout ratio of 21% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Grain 22%, Energy, chemicals and plastics 19%, Intermodal 18% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.4 / 10 | ROE | 9.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.51 | ROA | 4.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.4% | Payout ratio | 21% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 49: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 49 Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 10/20, Stability 19/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 25% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (10 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 24,725 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.4M shares a day on a market cap of $76.4B, with a beta of 1.22 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -51% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.4/10 | |
| Premium | 10 / 20 | implied volatility 25% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 1.4M shares/day, $76.4B cap, beta 1.22 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Railroads
The 10 companies below are the closest to Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. by market cap within the Railroads industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | 120.74 | 83.94 | -44% | 55Fair | $73.1B |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | 324.83 | 185.26 | -75% | 54Fair | $73.0B |
| CSX CSX Corporation | 48.69 | 27.03 | -80% | 66Good | $90.2B |
| WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 286.52 | 192.49 | -49% | 56Fair | $48.4B |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | 286.43 | 179.35 | -60% | 62Fair | $170.2B |
| TRN Trinity Industries, Inc. | 26.13 | 75.42 | +65% | 79Good | $2.1B |
| GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | 39.27 | 98.48 | +60% | 73Good | $1.2B |
| FSTR L.B. Foster Company | 34.30 | 58.10 | +41% | 74Good | $361M |
| RAIL FreightCar America, Inc. | 6.02 | - | - | 42Weak | $197M |
| RVSN Rail Vision Ltd. | 2.92 | - | - | 31No options | $5M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CP
Is CP undervalued right now?
No: at 86.91 the stock trades 51% above the GLS average fair value of 57.72 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CP and what does it mean?
CP scores 49 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CP?
57.72 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 392 listed contracts with 24,725 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 25% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.