Stock fact sheet · data as of
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Waste Management · United States · Blend
Is CWST undervalued?
At 86.50 (close of 16 Oct 2026), CWST trades 197% over the GLS average fair value of 29.10, with 1 of 8 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (0.3776) and DCF (156.16). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files CWST under Blend.
Nine valuation models for CWST
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 156.16 | +81% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 7.08 | -92% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 4.42 | -95% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 1.88 | -98% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.3776 | -100% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 57.36 | -34% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 4.53 | -95% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 0.9963 | -99% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -23.53 | -127% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 110.67 | +28% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.5/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.3%, ROE 0.5%, ROA 0.2% - with debt at 0.79 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.9%.
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Collection 72%, Processing Services 11%, Transfer 10% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 0.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.5 / 10 | ROE | 0.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.79 | ROA | 0.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.9% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 56: Fair
A Wheel Score of 56 puts Casella Waste Systems, Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 20/20 and Stability 16/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 40% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 761 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 742k shares a day on a market cap of $5.4B, with a beta of 0.78 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -197% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 40% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 742k shares/day, $5.4B cap, beta 0.78 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Waste Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to Casella Waste Systems, Inc. by market cap within the Waste Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFL GFL Environmental Inc. | 43.55 | 14.38 | -203% | 45Weak | $15.2B |
| CLH Clean Harbors, Inc. | 319.78 | 123.73 | -158% | 65Good | $16.9B |
| WCN Waste Connections, Inc. | 156.82 | 82.44 | -90% | 67Good | $39.5B |
| NVRI Enviri Corporation | 19.59 | - | - | 45Weak | $552M |
| ONT Onterris, Inc. | 14.07 | 39.73 | +65% | 45Weak | $494M |
| RSG Republic Services, Inc. | 224.44 | 150.42 | -49% | 55Fair | $68.7B |
| WM Waste Management, Inc. | 215.75 | 138.93 | -55% | 61Fair | $86.2B |
| PESI Perma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc. | 12.80 | - | - | 42Weak | $272M |
| ABAT American Battery Technology Company Common Stock | 1.57 | - | - | 45Weak | $224M |
| ENGS Energys Group Limited | 3.62 | - | - | 29No options | $161M |
| SGLA Sino Green Land Corporation | 0.4898 | 0.0897 | -446% | 15No options | $79M |
| LNZA LanzaTech Global, Inc. | 4.45 | 1,516.59 | +100% | 49Weak | $58M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CWST
Is CWST undervalued right now?
No: at 86.50 the stock trades 197% above the GLS average fair value of 29.10 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CWST and what does it mean?
CWST scores 56 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CWST?
29.10 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Casella Waste Systems, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CWST have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 196 listed contracts with 761 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 40% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.