Stock fact sheet · data as of
GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Waste Management · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is GFL undervalued?
At 43.55 (close of 16 Oct 2026), GFL trades 203% over the GLS average fair value of 14.38, with 0 of 3 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The average is built from just 3 models (DCF, 10 Cap, DDM) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files GFL under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for GFL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 13.75 | -68% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 28.04 | -36% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 1.36 | -97% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -30.50 | -170% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 56.50 | +30% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
GFL Environmental Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.6/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 25.2%, ROE 52.5%, ROA 19.9% - with debt at 1.09 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.9%.
The dividend yield is 0.15% with a payout ratio of -14% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Collection 65%, Landfills 17%, Transfer 13% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.6 / 10 | ROE | 52.5% |
| Debt / equity | 1.09 | ROA | 19.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.9% | Payout ratio | -14% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 GFL Environmental Inc. sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 15/20, Stability 20/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 82% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (15 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 627,770 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 4.8M shares a day on a market cap of $15.2B, with a beta of 0.51 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -203% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.6/10 | |
| Premium | 15 / 20 | implied volatility 82% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 4.8M shares/day, $15.2B cap, beta 0.51 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
GFL Environmental Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Waste Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to GFL Environmental Inc. by market cap within the Waste Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLH Clean Harbors, Inc. | 319.78 | 123.73 | -158% | 65Good | $16.9B |
| WCN Waste Connections, Inc. | 156.82 | 82.44 | -90% | 67Good | $39.5B |
| CWST Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | 86.50 | 29.10 | -197% | 56Fair | $5.4B |
| RSG Republic Services, Inc. | 224.44 | 150.42 | -49% | 55Fair | $68.7B |
| WM Waste Management, Inc. | 215.75 | 138.93 | -55% | 61Fair | $86.2B |
| NVRI Enviri Corporation | 19.59 | - | - | 45Weak | $552M |
| ONT Onterris, Inc. | 14.07 | 39.73 | +65% | 45Weak | $494M |
| PESI Perma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc. | 12.80 | - | - | 42Weak | $272M |
| ABAT American Battery Technology Company Common Stock | 1.57 | - | - | 45Weak | $224M |
| ENGS Energys Group Limited | 3.62 | - | - | 29No options | $161M |
| SGLA Sino Green Land Corporation | 0.4898 | 0.0897 | -446% | 15No options | $79M |
| LNZA LanzaTech Global, Inc. | 4.45 | 1,516.59 | +100% | 49Weak | $58M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about GFL
Is GFL undervalued right now?
No: at 43.55 the stock trades 203% above the GLS average fair value of 14.38 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of GFL and what does it mean?
GFL scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for GFL?
14.38 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 3 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does GFL Environmental Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does GFL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 550 listed contracts with 627,770 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 82% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.