Stock fact sheet · data as of
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Canada · Speculative / Distressed
Is GTE undervalued?
GTE has a margin of safety of 84%: the stock closed at 10.61 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 65.71. 1 of the 2 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files GTE under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for GTE
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 8.22 | -23% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 123.19 | +1061% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -32.33 | -405% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 14.00 | +32% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - GTE passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -20.3%, ROE -84.4%, ROA -12.2% - with debt at 3.17 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 71.8%. Debt of 3.17 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Colombia 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 1 Oct 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | -20.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.9 / 10 | ROE | -84.4% |
| Debt / equity | 3.17 | ROA | -12.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 71.8% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
GTE scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 11/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 16/20, Stability 10/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 74% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (16 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 13,029 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 475k shares a day on a market cap of $375M, with a beta of 0.16 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 84% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.9/10 | |
| Premium | 16 / 20 | implied volatility 74% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 475k shares/day, $375M cap, beta 0.16 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Gran Tierra Energy Inc. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REI Ring Energy, Inc. | 1.32 | 4.07 | +68% | 45Weak | $344M |
| ZNOG Zion Oil & Gas, Inc. | 0.3500 | 0.0073 | -4679% | 21No options | $417M |
| PNRG PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation | 212.55 | 477.47 | +55% | 39No options | $336M |
| FTW Presidio Production Company | 10.03 | 4,639.33 | +100% | 66Good | $316M |
| UNTC Unit Corporation | 31.25 | 48.19 | +35% | 39No options | $309M |
| GFR Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 6.45 | 28.55 | +77% | 39No options | $467M |
| SD SandRidge Energy, Inc. | 14.04 | 22.70 | +38% | 74Good | $521M |
| EXCE EXCO Resources, Inc. | 25.50 | 21.82 | -17% | 27No options | $550M |
| WTI W&T Offshore, Inc. | 3.65 | 7.87 | +54% | 45Weak | $551M |
| INR Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. | 13.00 | 62.22 | +79% | 71Good | $242M |
| KGEI Kolibri Global Energy Inc. | 6.62 | 7.32 | +10% | 39No options | $238M |
| EGY VAALCO Energy, Inc. | 6.01 | 2.40 | -151% | 44Weak | $632M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about GTE
Is GTE undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 10.61 the stock is 84% below the average fair value of 65.71 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of GTE and what does it mean?
GTE scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for GTE?
65.71 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Gran Tierra Energy Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does GTE have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 74 listed contracts with 13,029 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 74% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.