Stock fact sheet · data as of
Fold Holdings, Inc. (FLD): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Financial - Capital Markets · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is FLD undervalued?
FLD closed at 0.5231 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 0.0883. Only 0 of the 1 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DCF); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files FLD under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for FLD
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 0.0883 | -83% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -1.32 | -352% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 2.60 | +397% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - FLD passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.4 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -49.1%, ROE -110.5%, ROA -45.3% - with debt at 1.25 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Fold Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Other Revenues 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 1 Oct 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | -49.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.4 / 10 | ROE | -110.5% |
| Debt / equity | 1.25 | ROA | -45.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -85.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 19: Weak
FLD scores 19 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 0/20, Stability 6/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
No implied volatility is recorded for FLD - the nightly snapshot found no near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - so the Premium part of the Wheel Score is zero. Chain open interest is 3,249 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 100k shares a day on a market cap of $29M, with a beta of 0.36 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 6 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -493% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.4/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 6 / 20 | 100k shares/day, $29M cap, beta 0.36 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 9 Nov 2026 (after the close), 24 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Financial - Capital Markets
The 12 companies below are the closest to Fold Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Financial - Capital Markets industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| ATCH AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. | 0.1771 | 0.1068 | -66% | 30No options | $27M |
| GRAN Grande Group Limited Class A Ordinary Shares | 1.28 | 0.0357 | -3485% | 18No options | $32M |
| COHN Cohen & Company Inc. | 10.76 | 141.88 | +92% | 39No options | $35M |
| CFOR CapForce Inc. | 4.04 | 102.05 | +96% | 39No options | $42M |
| HGBL Heritage Global Inc. | 1.25 | 8.56 | +85% | 39No options | $43M |
| MDBH MDB Capital Holdings, LLC Class A common | 1.75 | 1.03 | -70% | 18No options | $18M |
| DOMH Dominari Holdings Inc. | 2.04 | 11.20 | +82% | 42Weak | $49M |
| MATH Metalpha Technology Holding Limited | 1.08 | 6.44 | +83% | 39No options | $51M |
| NCTY The9 Limited | 3.39 | 12.36 | +73% | 36No options | $52M |
| NCPL Netcapital Inc. | 1.98 | - | - | 38No options | $16M |
| GSIW Garden Stage Limited | 10.80 | - | - | 27No options | $15M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about FLD
Is FLD undervalued right now?
No: at 0.5231 the stock trades 493% above the GLS average fair value of 0.0883 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of FLD and what does it mean?
FLD scores 19 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for FLD?
0.0883 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Fold Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 9 Nov 2026 (after the close), 24 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does FLD have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 56 listed contracts with 3,249 open interest across all expiries. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.