Stock fact sheet · data as of
Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Canada · Speculative / Distressed
Is GFR undervalued?
Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) closed at 6.45 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 1 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 28.55, which puts the price 77% below it. 1 of the 1 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The average is built from just 1 models (DCF) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files GFR under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for GFR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 28.55 | +343% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.4232 | -93% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Greenfire Resources Ltd. scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 1.9/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.0%, ROE 4.1%, ROA 3.7% - with debt at 0.01 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Greenfire Resources Ltd. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 2/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.9 / 10 | ROE | 4.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.01 | ROA | 3.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -9.1% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 2 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 39: No options
No options are listed on Greenfire Resources Ltd. in our nightly snapshot. The Wheel Score is therefore capped at 39 (it reads 39) and the stock is left out of every options screen; the fair value and health figures above are still useful for a plain stock position.
Volume runs at 1.3M shares a day on a market cap of $467M, with a beta of 0.19 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 77% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.9/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 1.3M shares/day, $467M cap, beta 0.19 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Greenfire Resources Ltd. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD SandRidge Energy, Inc. | 14.04 | 22.70 | +38% | 74Good | $521M |
| ZNOG Zion Oil & Gas, Inc. | 0.3500 | 0.0073 | -4679% | 21No options | $417M |
| EXCE EXCO Resources, Inc. | 25.50 | 21.82 | -17% | 27No options | $550M |
| WTI W&T Offshore, Inc. | 3.65 | 7.87 | +54% | 45Weak | $551M |
| GTE Gran Tierra Energy Inc. | 10.61 | 65.71 | +84% | 45Weak | $375M |
| EGY VAALCO Energy, Inc. | 6.01 | 2.40 | -151% | 44Weak | $632M |
| REI Ring Energy, Inc. | 1.32 | 4.07 | +68% | 45Weak | $344M |
| PNRG PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation | 212.55 | 477.47 | +55% | 39No options | $336M |
| GRNT Granite Ridge Resources, Inc | 5.09 | 4.45 | -14% | 45Weak | $671M |
| FTW Presidio Production Company | 10.03 | 4,639.33 | +100% | 66Good | $316M |
| UNTC Unit Corporation | 31.25 | 48.19 | +35% | 39No options | $309M |
| VTS Vitesse Energy, Inc. | 17.44 | 32.13 | +46% | 45Weak | $734M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about GFR
Is GFR undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 6.45 the stock is 77% below the average fair value of 28.55 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of GFR and what does it mean?
GFR has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; its Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for GFR?
28.55 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Greenfire Resources Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does GFR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on GFR, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score is capped at 39.