Stock fact sheet · data as of
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is NOG undervalued?
At 25.75 (close of 16 Oct 2026), NOG trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 26.49 (2.8% below fair value). 1 models produced a value and they split 1 above the price to 0 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files NOG under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for NOG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 26.49 | +3% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -25.31 | -198% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 29.75 | +16% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: NOG passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.6 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.9%, ROE 1.8%, ROA 0.7% - with debt at 1.13 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 6.99% (payout ratio -37%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Oil and Gas 86%, Natural Gas and NGL 14% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | 0.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.6 / 10 | ROE | 1.8% |
| Debt / equity | 1.13 | ROA | 0.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -30.6% | Payout ratio | -37% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
NOG scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 14/25, Health 7/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 17/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 50% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 39,450 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.7M shares a day on a market cap of $2.7B, with a beta of 0.75 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 14 / 25 | 3% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.6/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 50% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 1.7M shares/day, $2.7B cap, beta 0.75 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TALO Talos Energy Inc. | 17.03 | 45.88 | +63% | 45Weak | $2.8B |
| GPOR Gulfport Energy Corp | 163.75 | 342.43 | +52% | 76Good | $2.9B |
| BKV BKV Corporation | 22.30 | 38.22 | +42% | 79Good | $2.4B |
| BSM Black Stone Minerals, L.P. | 14.75 | 23.69 | +38% | 74Good | $3.1B |
| BTE Baytex Energy Corp. | 5.16 | 7.22 | +29% | 45Weak | $3.6B |
| VET Vermilion Energy Inc. | 12.45 | 31.90 | +61% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. | 13.50 | 39.00 | +65% | 79Good | $4.0B |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | 12.51 | 13.98 | +11% | 74Good | $4.1B |
| MNR Mach Natural Resources LP | 10.84 | 37.90 | +71% | 77Good | $1.8B |
| KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners, LP | 15.94 | 22.31 | +29% | 70Good | $1.6B |
| NEXT Nextdecade Corp | 6.01 | - | - | 45Weak | $1.6B |
| KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd. | 2.68 | 4.74 | +43% | 45Weak | $1.6B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NOG
Is NOG undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 25.75 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 26.49 (2.8% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of NOG and what does it mean?
NOG scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NOG?
26.49 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NOG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 342 listed contracts with 39,450 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 50% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.