Stock fact sheet · data as of
Nextdecade Corp (NEXT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol NEXT · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Speculative
Is NEXT undervalued?
At 6.25 (close of 5 Nov 2026), NEXT has no GLS fair value: every one of the nine models needs a positive input (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -0.35, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so the margin of safety is blank and the Wheel Score cannot be computed. Our scans leave the stock out at the first filter. What can be said from the nightly row is below.
The nightly engine files NEXT under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for NEXT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -34.99 | -660% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 8.50 | +36% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Nextdecade Corp scores only 1 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 0.4/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -3.5%, ROE -321.4%, ROA -2.5% - with debt at 90.80 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 90.80 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Nextdecade Corp pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 1 / 9 | ROIC | -3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 0.4 / 10 | ROE | -321.4% |
| Debt / equity | 90.80 | ROA | -2.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -208.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 28: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 28 Nextdecade Corp sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades right at our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 1/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - debt with no positive cash flow to repay it; Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 57% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 117,698 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 3.9M shares a day on a market cap of $1.7B, with a beta of 1.42 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades right at our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 1/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | debt with no positive cash flow to repay it |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 0% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 57% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 0.4/10 | |
| Health | Weak | Piotroski 1/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 80/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 5,887 contracts a day, 117,698 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 1.42, $1.7B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for NEXT in the nightly calendar.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Nextdecade Corp by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNR Mach Natural Resources LP | 10.02 | 38.45 | +74% | 75Good | $1.7B |
| VET Vermilion Energy Inc. | 10.75 | 25.35 | +58% | 46Weak | $1.6B |
| KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners, LP | 15.48 | 22.61 | +32% | 74Good | $1.6B |
| DMLP Dorchester Minerals, L.P. | 27.81 | 33.65 | +17% | 76Good | $1.4B |
| BKV BKV Corporation | 19.10 | 41.00 | +53% | 74Good | $2.1B |
| KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd. | 2.25 | 11.33 | +80% | 43Weak | $1.3B |
| NOG Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. | 22.27 | 26.49 | +16% | 45Weak | $2.4B |
| TALO Talos Energy Inc. | 15.61 | 60.98 | +74% | 48Weak | $2.6B |
| GPOR Gulfport Energy Corp | 159.11 | 293.20 | +46% | 43Weak | $2.8B |
| TBN Tamboran Resources Corp | 28.10 | 3.56 | -689% | 8No options | $982M |
| HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc. | 7.57 | 7.12 | -6% | 21Weak | $957M |
| DEC Diversified Energy Company PLC | 13.33 | 225.79 | +94% | 32No options | $943M |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NEXT
Is NEXT undervalued right now?
The GLS models could not value NEXT (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -0.35, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so there is no fair value or margin of safety to compare the price of 6.25 against.
What is the Wheel Score of NEXT and what does it mean?
NEXT scores 28 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3, 4, 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for NEXT?
None of the nine GLS models produced a positive value for NEXT (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -0.35, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so there is no GLS fair value tonight.
When does Nextdecade Corp report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for NEXT in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does NEXT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 30 listed contracts with 117,698 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 57% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.