Stock fact sheet · data as of
Talos Energy Inc. (TALO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol TALO · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Speculative
Is TALO undervalued?
At 15.61 (close of 5 Nov 2026), TALO trades 74% below the GLS average fair value of 60.98. That average comes from 2 models run on the latest filings, and 2 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Talos Energy Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files TALO under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for TALO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 47.54 | +205% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 74.43 | +377% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -15.23 | -198% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 20.00 | +28% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - TALO passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.3 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -14.6%, ROE -22.9%, ROA -8.9% - with debt at 0.57 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 18.7%.
Talos Energy Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Oil and Condensate 95%, Natural Gas, Production 5% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | -14.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.3 / 10 | ROE | -22.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.57 | ROA | -8.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 18.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 48: Weak
TALO scores 48 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 5/9 (under 6), and the parts are thin too - value strong, premium strong, moat weak, health fair, red flags strong, option trading weak, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 52% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 5,898 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 5.1M shares a day on a market cap of $2.6B, with a beta of 0.36 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 5/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 74% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 52% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 3.3/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 95/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 534 contracts a day, 5,898 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.36, $2.6B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for TALO in the nightly calendar.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Talos Energy Inc. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPOR Gulfport Energy Corp | 159.11 | 293.20 | +46% | 43Weak | $2.8B |
| NOG Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. | 22.27 | 26.49 | +16% | 45Weak | $2.4B |
| BSM Black Stone Minerals, L.P. | 14.51 | 21.91 | +34% | 48Weak | $3.1B |
| BTE Baytex Energy Corp. | 4.44 | 5.82 | +24% | 46Weak | $3.1B |
| BKV BKV Corporation | 19.10 | 41.00 | +53% | 74Good | $2.1B |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | 11.73 | 15.00 | +22% | 47Weak | $3.9B |
| CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. | 13.38 | 39.00 | +66% | 48Weak | $3.9B |
| NEXT Nextdecade Corp | 6.25 | - | - | 28Weak | $1.7B |
| MNR Mach Natural Resources LP | 10.02 | 38.45 | +74% | 75Good | $1.7B |
| VET Vermilion Energy Inc. | 10.75 | 25.35 | +58% | 46Weak | $1.6B |
| CRC California Resources Corp | 48.34 | 75.59 | +36% | 44Weak | $4.3B |
| KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners, LP | 15.48 | 22.61 | +32% | 74Good | $1.6B |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TALO
Is TALO undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 15.61 the stock is 74% below the average fair value of 60.98 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of TALO and what does it mean?
TALO scores 48 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 4. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for TALO?
60.98 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Talos Energy Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for TALO in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does TALO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 36 listed contracts with 5,898 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 52% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.