Stock fact sheet · data as of
VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol EGY · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Speculative Income
Is EGY undervalued?
EGY closed at 5.40 on 5 Nov 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 2.45. Only 0 of the 2 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the "below fair value" Wheel Trade Filter keeps names like this under 70.
The average is built from just 2 models (DCF, DDM) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files EGY under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan. It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for EGY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 1.22 | -77% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 3.68 | -32% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -3.20 | -159% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 7.30 | +35% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
VAALCO Energy, Inc. scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. On durability EGY scores 6.2/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -7.2%, ROE -9.3%, ROA -4.5% - with debt at 0.29 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 4.63% (payout ratio -31%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Gabon 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | -7.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.2 / 10 | ROE | -9.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.29 | ROA | -4.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -44.2% | Payout ratio | -31% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 37: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 37 VAALCO Energy, Inc. sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 120% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $568M (under $1.0B); Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 45% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 7,840 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.3M shares a day on a market cap of $568M, with a beta of 0.07 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 120% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $568M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 120% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 45% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.2/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 80/100 | |
| Option trading | Good | 11,256 contracts a day, 7,840 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.07, $568M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
VAALCO Energy, Inc. reports earnings on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to VAALCO Energy, Inc. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRNT Granite Ridge Resources, Inc | 4.63 | 4.45 | -4% | 26Weak | $611M |
| GPRK GeoPark Limited | 9.43 | 21.78 | +57% | 51Fair | $612M |
| OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd. | 9.21 | 2.75 | -235% | 31Weak | $615M |
| VTS Vitesse Energy, Inc. | 14.67 | 34.34 | +57% | 43Weak | $618M |
| EXCE EXCO Resources, Inc. | 24.01 | 21.82 | -10% | 14No options | $518M |
| WTI W&T Offshore, Inc. | 3.21 | 9.52 | +66% | 44Weak | $497M |
| SD SandRidge Energy, Inc. | 12.60 | 27.38 | +54% | 49Weak | $467M |
| TXO TXO Partners, L.P. | 13.09 | 34.48 | +62% | 42Weak | $726M |
| ZNOG Zion Oil & Gas, Inc. | 0.3500 | 0.0073 | -4680% | 12No options | $417M |
| GFR Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 5.66 | 26.74 | +79% | 30No options | $410M |
| GTE Gran Tierra Energy Inc. | 10.05 | 65.81 | +85% | 42Weak | $356M |
| REPX Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 42.88 | 71.28 | +40% | 51Fair | $930M |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about EGY
Is EGY undervalued right now?
No: at 5.40 the stock trades 120% above the GLS average fair value of 2.45 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of EGY and what does it mean?
EGY scores 37 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3, 4, 8. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for EGY?
2.45 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does VAALCO Energy, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 0 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does EGY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 24 listed contracts with 7,840 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 45% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.