Stock fact sheet · data as of
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol OBE · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Canada · Value
Is OBE undervalued?
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) closed at 9.21 on 5 Nov 2026, 235% above the GLS average fair value of 2.75. 5 of the 5 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 5 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 0.2648 while Graham Number gives 8.33. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, OBE is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 33, growth score 11, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for OBE
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 8.33 | -10% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 2.23 | -76% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 0.2648 | -97% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.6040 | -93% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 2.29 | -75% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -4.01 | -144% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - OBE passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.1 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.6%, ROE 1.8%, ROA 1.4% - with debt at 0.14 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Obsidian Energy Ltd. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Crude Oil Fuel 93%, Natural Gas 7% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 1.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.14 | ROA | 1.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -21.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 31: Weak
OBE scores 31 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 235% above our fair value; and filter 8, big enough - market cap $615M (under $1.0B), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium good, moat fair, health good, red flags weak, option trading good, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 72% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 24,080 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.3M shares a day on a market cap of $615M, with a beta of 0.16 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 235% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $615M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 235% above fair value | |
| Premium | Good | implied volatility 72% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 60/100 | |
| Option trading | Good | 2,461 contracts a day, 24,080 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.16, $615M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Obsidian Energy Ltd. reports earnings on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Obsidian Energy Ltd. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPRK GeoPark Limited | 9.43 | 21.78 | +57% | 51Fair | $612M |
| VTS Vitesse Energy, Inc. | 14.67 | 34.34 | +57% | 43Weak | $618M |
| GRNT Granite Ridge Resources, Inc | 4.63 | 4.45 | -4% | 26Weak | $611M |
| EGY VAALCO Energy, Inc. | 5.40 | 2.45 | -120% | 37Weak | $568M |
| TXO TXO Partners, L.P. | 13.09 | 34.48 | +62% | 42Weak | $726M |
| EXCE EXCO Resources, Inc. | 24.01 | 21.82 | -10% | 14No options | $518M |
| WTI W&T Offshore, Inc. | 3.21 | 9.52 | +66% | 44Weak | $497M |
| SD SandRidge Energy, Inc. | 12.60 | 27.38 | +54% | 49Weak | $467M |
| ZNOG Zion Oil & Gas, Inc. | 0.3500 | 0.0073 | -4680% | 12No options | $417M |
| GFR Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 5.66 | 26.74 | +79% | 30No options | $410M |
| REPX Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 42.88 | 71.28 | +40% | 51Fair | $930M |
| DEC Diversified Energy Company PLC | 13.33 | 225.79 | +94% | 32No options | $943M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about OBE
Is OBE undervalued right now?
No: at 9.21 the stock trades 235% above the GLS average fair value of 2.75 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of OBE and what does it mean?
OBE scores 31 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 3, 8. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for OBE?
2.75 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 5 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Obsidian Energy Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 0 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does OBE have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 36 listed contracts with 24,080 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 72% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.