Stock fact sheet · data as of
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol SAFT · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · Growth
Is SAFT undervalued?
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) closed at 104.35 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 201.26, which puts the price 48% below it. 6 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 9 models disagree widely: EPV gives 53.81 while Payback Time gives 479.14. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, SAFT is clearly faster-growing than it is cheap, so the nightly engine files it under Growth (value score 51, growth score 76, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for SAFT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 179.01 | +72% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 80.13 | -23% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 277.00 | +165% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 121.07 | +16% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 296.47 | +184% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 270.57 | +159% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 479.14 | +359% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 54.15 | -48% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 53.81 | -48% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -18.37 | -118% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health SAFT scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 7.0 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 10.4%, ROE 11.1%, ROA 4.0% - with debt at 0.07 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.5%.
The dividend yield is 3.53% at a payout ratio of 77%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Property Liability And Casualty Insuran… 100% (fiscal year FY2017).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 10.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.0 / 10 | ROE | 11.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.07 | ROA | 4.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 11.5% | Payout ratio | 77% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 41: Weak
SAFT scores 41 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (56 open interest, 35 a day); and filter 7, a premium worth selling - implied volatility 25% (under 25%), and the parts are thin too - value strong, premium weak, moat good, health good, red flags good, option trading weak, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility on the near-the-money contracts is 25%, below the 25% the Wheel Trade Filter on premium asks for: a put pays too little to be worth selling. Chain open interest is thin - 56 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 318k shares a day on a market cap of $1.5B, with a beta of 0.18 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (56 open interest, 35 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Fails | implied volatility 25% (under 25%) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 48% below fair value | |
| Premium | Weak | implied volatility 25% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 7.0/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 82/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 35 contracts a day, 56 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.18, $1.5B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SAFT in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRUP Trupanion, Inc. | 33.68 | 24.09 | -40% | 34Weak | $1.5B |
| AFGC American Financial Group, Inc. | 17.36 | 122.48 | +86% | 35No options | $1.4B |
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | 47.10 | 64.63 | +27% | 44Weak | $1.4B |
| AFGB American Financial Group, Inc. | 20.41 | 125.47 | +84% | 35No options | $1.7B |
| AFGD American Financial Group, Inc. | 20.74 | 125.79 | +84% | 35No options | $1.7B |
| UVE Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | 48.78 | 213.39 | +77% | 54Fair | $1.3B |
| AFGE American Financial Group, Inc. | 15.55 | 120.70 | +87% | 35No options | $1.3B |
| UFCS United Fire Group, Inc. | 49.32 | 147.50 | +67% | 47Weak | $1.3B |
| KMPB Kemper Corporation 5.875% Fixed | 25.00 | 90.52 | +72% | 24No options | $2.0B |
| ASIC Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC | 24.46 | 60.93 | +60% | 34No options | $1.2B |
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation | 50.20 | 153.58 | +67% | 45Weak | $2.0B |
| BOW Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. | 34.10 | 98.36 | +65% | 33No options | $1.1B |
⚖ Compare SAFT with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about SAFT
Is SAFT undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 104.35 the stock is 48% below the average fair value of 201.26 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of SAFT and what does it mean?
SAFT scores 41 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 7. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for SAFT?
201.26 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Safety Insurance Group, Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SAFT in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does SAFT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 68 listed contracts with 56 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 25% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.