Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is SAFT undervalued?

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) closed at 103.94 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 196.31, which puts the price 47% below it. 6 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

The 9 models disagree widely: EPV gives 52.50 while Payback Time gives 467.76. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files SAFT under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for SAFT

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health SAFT scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 7.7 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 10.4%, ROE 11.1%, ROA 4.0% - with debt at 0.07 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.5%.

The dividend yield is 3.54% at a payout ratio of 79%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Property Liability And Casualty Insuran… 100% (fiscal year FY2017).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 72: Good

SAFT scores 72 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (12/15), the option premium on offer (9/20) and how easily the stock trades (9/20). Premium (9/20) is the part holding the score back.

Implied volatility is 24% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (9 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 386 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.

Volume runs at 101k shares a day on a market cap of $1.5B, with a beta of 0.17 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 9 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty

The 12 companies below are the closest to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

⚖ Compare SAFT with 7 of them   All Financial Services stocks →